Tottenham 1–0 Manchester City: Result & Stats

Tottenham

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Manchester City

H. Kane 15'

2/5/2023

Premier League · Round 22Tottenham Hotspur Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 33+ matches

Tottenham33%

×Draw25%

Manchester City42%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TottenhamExpected goals in this matchManchester City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.52

Tottenham

1.33

Manchester City

1.52

Manchester City creates 14% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 33 away

1.45

creates per match

1.77

1.28

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Tottenham

1.45

Manchester City

1.77

allows per match

Tottenham

1.28

Manchester City

1.21

+0.06on par

finishing

-0.29scores less than expected

finishing

Tottenham+0.06on par

Manchester City-0.29scores less

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tottenham ↓

Manchester City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Tottenham or draw

58%

Tottenham or Manchester City

75%

Draw or Manchester City

67%

Winning margin

Tottenham wins by 2+

15%

Manchester City wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Tottenham 1+ goals

74%

Tottenham 2+ goals

38%

Tottenham 3+ goals

15%

Manchester City 1+ goals

78%

Manchester City 2+ goals

45%

Manchester City 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Tottenham (draw refunded)

44%

Manchester City (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tottenham at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.28 · 39 matches

Manchester City away — creates 1.77, concedes 1.21 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tottenham attack 1.45 + Manchester City defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.33

Manchester City attack 1.77 + Tottenham defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Tottenham scores more

33%

level

25%

Manchester City scores more

42%

Manchester City at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Manchester City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

H. Lloris

Tottenham · G

7.9

Match Events

15'

H. Kane↳ P. Højbjerg

23'

Rodrigo Bentancur

26'

Cristian Romero

59'

K. De Bruyne← R. Mahrez

75'

Ivan Perišić

79'

R. Sessegnon← I. Perišić

83'

Ederson

84'

Y. Bissouma← Son Heung-Min

84'

İ. Gündoğan← Bernardo Silva

87'

Cristian Romero

87'

Cristian Romero

88'

D. Sánchez← D. Kulusevski

90+7'

Jack Grealish

90+7'

Kyle Walker

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

TottenhamManchester

Overview

35%Possession65%

12Total Shots15

1.46Expected Goals (xG)1.32

4Corners6

19Fouls14

Shots

12Total Shots15

3On Target5

5Off Target5

4Blocked5

9Inside Box10

3Outside Box5

Passing

35%Possession65%

303Total Passes556

226Accurate Passes487

75%Pass Accuracy88%

Goalkeeping

5Saves2

Discipline

19Fouls14

4Yellow Cards3

1Red Cards0

2Offsides1