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Tottenham vs Inter — International Champions Cup 2018

Tottenham
Tottenham
Pens
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Inter
Inter
8/4/2019International Champions CupInternational Champions Cup · Group Stage - 2Tottenham Hotspur Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Tottenham21%
×Draw34%
Inter45%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tottenham
0.58
Inter
1.00

Inter creates 72% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

creates per match

Tottenham
0.67
Inter
1.00

allows per match

Tottenham
1.00
Inter
0.50

finishing

Tottenham+0.00on par
Inter+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Under
  • Under79
  • Over21

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

72%No
  • No72
  • Yes28

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tottenham ↓

Inter →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–021%
0–121%
0–210%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–03%
2–13%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (21%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
79%21%1.5
47%53%2.5
21%79%3.5
8%92%4.5
2%98%

Double chance

Tottenham or draw
55%
Tottenham or Inter
66%
Draw or Inter
79%

Winning margin

Tottenham wins by 2+
5%
Inter wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Tottenham 1+ goals
44%
Tottenham 2+ goals
12%
Tottenham 3+ goals
2%
Inter 1+ goals
63%
Inter 2+ goals
26%
Inter 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Tottenham (draw refunded)
32%
Inter (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
16%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tottenham at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Inter away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tottenham attack 0.67 + Inter defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.58

Inter attack 1.00 + Tottenham defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Tottenham scores more
21%
level
34%
Inter scores more
45%

Inter at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Inter will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

International Champions Cup: Tottenham 1–1 Inter

Tottenham and Inter drew 1-1 in International Champions Cup on August 4, 2019.

The match was played at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in London.