Tottenham 1–0 Inter: Result & Stats

Tottenham

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Inter

C. Eriksen 80'

11/28/2018

UEFA Champions League · Group Stage - 5Wembley Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Tottenham54%

×Draw23%

Inter23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.4%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TottenhamExpected goals in this matchInter

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.84

1.13

Tottenham

1.84

Inter

1.13

Tottenham creates 63% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 11 away

2.21

creates per match

1.65

0.60

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Tottenham

2.21

Inter

1.65

allows per match

Tottenham

0.60

Inter

1.47

+0.39scores more than expected

finishing

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

Tottenham+0.39scores more

Inter-0.10scores less

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tottenham ↓

Inter →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Tottenham or draw

77%

Tottenham or Inter

77%

Draw or Inter

46%

Winning margin

Tottenham wins by 2+

30%

Inter wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Tottenham 1+ goals

84%

Tottenham 2+ goals

55%

Tottenham 3+ goals

28%

Inter 1+ goals

68%

Inter 2+ goals

31%

Inter 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Tottenham (draw refunded)

70%

Inter (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tottenham at home — creates 2.21, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

Inter away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.47 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tottenham attack 2.21 + Inter defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.84

Inter attack 1.65 + Tottenham defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Tottenham scores more

54%

level

23%

Inter scores more

23%

Tottenham at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Tottenham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

C. Eriksen

Tottenham · M

7.7

Match Events

28'

Toby Alderweireld

44'

Borja Valero← R. Nainggolan

45'

Érik Lamela

62'

Son Heung-Min← Lucas Moura

70'

Stefan de Vrij

70'

C. Eriksen← E. Lamela

73'

Heung-Min Son

80'

C. Eriksen↳ D. Alli

81'

Borja Valero

82'

João Miranda← S. de Vrij

83'

K. Baldé← M. Politano

87'

E. Dier← H. Winks

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

TottenhamInter

Overview

51%Possession49%

14Total Shots10

9Corners6

17Fouls12

Shots

14Total Shots10

5On Target2

6Off Target4

3Blocked4

6Inside Box4

8Outside Box6

Passing

51%Possession49%

457Total Passes430

385Accurate Passes338

84%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

17Fouls12

3Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0

1Offsides1