Inter 2–1 Tottenham: Result & Stats

Inter

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Tottenham

M. Vecino 90+2'

M. Icardi 85'

C. Eriksen 53'

9/18/2018

UEFA Champions League · Group Stage - 1San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Inter58%

×Draw21%

Tottenham22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.4%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

InterExpected goals in this matchTottenham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.11

1.22

Inter

2.11

Tottenham

1.22

Inter creates 73% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 5 away

2.06

creates per match

1.36

1.07

allows per match

2.16

creates per match

Inter

2.06

Tottenham

1.36

allows per match

Inter

1.07

Tottenham

2.16

-0.50scores less than expected

finishing

+0.44scores more than expected

finishing

Inter-0.50scores less

Tottenham+0.44scores more

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter ↓

Tottenham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Inter or draw

78%

Inter or Tottenham

79%

Draw or Tottenham

42%

Winning margin

Inter wins by 2+

35%

Tottenham wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Inter 1+ goals

88%

Inter 2+ goals

62%

Inter 3+ goals

35%

Tottenham 1+ goals

70%

Tottenham 2+ goals

34%

Tottenham 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Inter (draw refunded)

73%

Tottenham (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inter at home — creates 2.06, concedes 1.07 · 9 matches

Tottenham away — creates 1.36, concedes 2.16 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inter attack 2.06 + Tottenham defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 2.11

Tottenham attack 1.36 + Inter defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Inter scores more

58%

level

21%

Tottenham scores more

22%

Inter at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Inter will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

C. Eriksen

Tottenham · M

8.5

Match Events

21'

38'

43'

51'

53'

C. Eriksen↳ E. Lamela

64'

A. Candreva← I. Perišić

64'

Lucas Moura← Son Heung-Min

72'

K. Baldé← M. Politano

72'

H. Winks← E. Lamela

82'

Michel Vorm

85'

M. Icardi↳ K. Asamoah

89'

Borja Valero← R. Nainggolan

90'

D. Rose← H. Kane

90+2'

M. Vecino↳ S. de Vrij

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

InterTottenham

Overview

46%Possession54%

15Total Shots11

8Corners4

11Fouls15

Shots

15Total Shots11

4On Target6

7Off Target4

4Blocked1

9Inside Box6

6Outside Box5

Passing

46%Possession54%

430Total Passes517

351Accurate Passes437

82%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

5Saves2

Discipline

11Fouls15

2Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards0

3Offsides4