Tottenham 3–0 Burnley: Result & Stats

Tottenham

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Burnley

B. Johnson 66'

Richarlison 60', 10'

8/16/2025

Premier League · Round 1Tottenham Hotspur Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 20+ matches

Tottenham55%

×Draw23%

Burnley21%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TottenhamExpected goals in this matchBurnley

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.01

Tottenham

1.77

Burnley

1.01

Tottenham creates 75% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 20 away

1.47

creates per match

0.72

1.30

allows per match

2.08

creates per match

Tottenham

1.47

Burnley

0.72

allows per match

Tottenham

1.30

Burnley

2.08

+0.04on par

finishing

+0.33scores more than expected

finishing

Tottenham+0.04on par

Burnley+0.33scores more

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tottenham ↓

Burnley →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Tottenham or draw

79%

Tottenham or Burnley

77%

Draw or Burnley

45%

Winning margin

Tottenham wins by 2+

31%

Burnley wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Tottenham 1+ goals

83%

Tottenham 2+ goals

53%

Tottenham 3+ goals

26%

Burnley 1+ goals

64%

Burnley 2+ goals

27%

Burnley 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Tottenham (draw refunded)

72%

Burnley (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tottenham at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.30 · 37 matches

Burnley away — creates 0.72, concedes 2.08 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tottenham attack 1.47 + Burnley defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.77

Burnley attack 0.72 + Tottenham defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Tottenham scores more

55%

level

23%

Burnley scores more

21%

Tottenham at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Tottenham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

Richarlison↳ M. Kudus

60'

Richarlison↳ M. Kudus

63'

L. Ugochukwu← J. Laurent

63'

J. Bruun Larsen← H. Mejbri

66'

B. Johnson↳ P. M. Sarr

71'

D. Solanke← Richarlison

71'

R. Bentancur← A. Gray

74'

Z. Flemming← L. Foster

74'

L. Tchaouna← O. Sonne

80'

J. Palhinha← L. Bergvall

80'

W. Odobert← B. Johnson

85'

M. Tel← M. Kudus

85'

M. Edwards← J. Anthony

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

TottenhamBurnley

Overview

67%Possession33%

16Total Shots14

2.32Expected Goals (xG)0.94

6Corners5

14Fouls8

Shots

16Total Shots14

6On Target4

9Off Target7

1Blocked3

12Inside Box7

4Outside Box7

Passing

67%Possession33%

511Total Passes246

451Accurate Passes181

88%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

-0.39Goals Prevented-0.39

Discipline

14Fouls8

0Offsides4