Tottenham 2–1 Burnley: Result & Stats

Tottenham

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Burnley

M. van de Ven 82'

Pedro Porro 32'

J. Bruun Larsen 25'

5/11/2024

Premier League · Round 37Tottenham Hotspur Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 20+ matches

Tottenham53%

×Draw24%

Burnley23%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TottenhamExpected goals in this matchBurnley

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.02

Tottenham

1.71

Burnley

1.02

Tottenham creates 68% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 20 away

1.33

creates per match

0.72

1.31

allows per match

2.08

creates per match

Tottenham

1.33

Burnley

0.72

allows per match

Tottenham

1.31

Burnley

2.08

+0.11scores more than expected

finishing

+0.33scores more than expected

finishing

Tottenham+0.11scores more

Burnley+0.33scores more

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tottenham ↓

Burnley →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Tottenham or draw

77%

Tottenham or Burnley

76%

Draw or Burnley

47%

Winning margin

Tottenham wins by 2+

29%

Burnley wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Tottenham 1+ goals

82%

Tottenham 2+ goals

51%

Tottenham 3+ goals

24%

Burnley 1+ goals

64%

Burnley 2+ goals

27%

Burnley 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Tottenham (draw refunded)

70%

Burnley (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tottenham at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.31 · 32 matches

Burnley away — creates 0.72, concedes 2.08 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tottenham attack 1.33 + Burnley defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.71

Burnley attack 0.72 + Tottenham defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Tottenham scores more

53%

level

24%

Burnley scores more

23%

Tottenham at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Tottenham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

Pedro Porro

Tottenham · D

8.0

Match Events

11'

Josh Cullen

25'

J. Bruun Larsen↳ S. Berge

32'

Pedro Porro↳ B. Johnson

46'

47'

55'

65'

67'

72'

75'

D. Scarlett← D. Kulusevski

75'

R. Bentancur← Y. Bissouma

75'

R. Drăgușin← O. Skipp

81'

M. Trésor← J. Bruun Larsen

82'

M. van de Ven↳ J. Maddison

87'

Pape Matar Sarr

87'

D. Fofana← L. Foster

88'

G. Lo Celso← J. Maddison

88'

P. Højbjerg← P. Sarr

88'

Z. Amdouni← J. Cullen

90+1'

Lorenz Assignon

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

TottenhamBurnley

Overview

63%Possession37%

21Total Shots7

2.72Expected Goals (xG)0.67

9Corners3

10Fouls14

Shots

21Total Shots7

9On Target3

6Off Target2

6Blocked2

16Inside Box6

5Outside Box1

Passing

63%Possession37%

547Total Passes318

482Accurate Passes235

88%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

2Saves7

Discipline

10Fouls14

3Yellow Cards5

1Offsides3

Match Recap: Tottenham vs Burnley

Tottenham beat Burnley 2-1 in Premier League on May 11, 2024.

Goals: J. Bruun Larsen (25'), Pedro Porro (32'), M. van de Ven (82').

Tottenham controlled possession (63%) and registered 21 shots to 7.

The match was played at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in London.

Tottenham vs Burnley — Premier League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Tottenham vs Burnley