Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Burnley vs Tottenham — Premier League 2026

Burnley
Burnley
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Tottenham
Tottenham
L. Foster 76'
A. Tuanzebe 45'
C. Romero 90'
M. van de Ven 38'
1/24/2026Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 23Turf Moor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 20+ matches

Burnley31%
×Draw25%
Tottenham44%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Burnley
1.25
Tottenham
1.53

Tottenham creates 22% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 33 away

creates per match

Burnley
0.96
Tottenham
1.12

allows per match

Burnley
1.94
Tottenham
1.55

finishing

Burnley-0.06on par
Tottenham+0.33scores more

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burnley ↓

Tottenham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Burnley or draw
56%
Burnley or Tottenham
75%
Draw or Tottenham
69%

Winning margin

Burnley wins by 2+
13%
Tottenham wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Burnley 1+ goals
71%
Burnley 2+ goals
36%
Burnley 3+ goals
13%
Tottenham 1+ goals
78%
Tottenham 2+ goals
45%
Tottenham 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Burnley (draw refunded)
42%
Tottenham (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Burnley at home — creates 0.96, concedes 1.94 · 20 matches

Tottenham away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.55 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Burnley attack 0.96 + Tottenham defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.25

Tottenham attack 1.12 + Burnley defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Burnley scores more
31%
level
25%
Tottenham scores more
44%

Tottenham at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Tottenham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

38'
M. van de Ven
45'
A. Tuanzebe↳ K. Walker
46'
D. Udogie← P. Porro
69'
J. Laurent← Florentino
69'
L. Foster← A. Broja
76'
L. Foster
78'
M. Tel← K. Danso
78'
A. Gray← Y. Bissouma
79'
Josh Laurent
85'
H. Mejbri← M. Edwards
85'
D. Scarlett← C. Gallagher
90+5'
R. Dragusin← C. Romero
90'
C. Romero↳ W. Odobert

Possession

38%Burnley

Shots

9Burnley

Pass accuracy

48%Burnley

Statistics

BurnleyTottenham
Overview
38%Possession62%
9Total Shots18
1.44Expected Goals (xG)2.05
1Corners3
8Fouls9
Shots
9Total Shots18
4On Target11
2Off Target7
3Blocked0
6Inside Box11
3Outside Box7
Passing
38%Possession62%
379Total Passes620
292Accurate Passes526
77%Pass Accuracy85%
Goalkeeping
9Saves2
-0.11Goals Prevented-0.11
Discipline
8Fouls9
1Yellow Cards0
3Offsides1

Premier League: Burnley 2–2 Tottenham

Burnley and Tottenham drew 2-2 in Premier League on January 24, 2026.

Goals: M. van de Ven (38'), A. Tuanzebe (45'), L. Foster (76'), C. Romero (90').

Tottenham controlled possession (62%) and registered 18 shots to 9.

The match was played at Turf Moor in Burnley.