Tottenham 1–0 Burnley: Result & Stats

Tottenham

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Burnley

H. Kane 45+8' (pen)

5/15/2022

Premier League · Round 37Tottenham Hotspur Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 19+ matches

Tottenham53%

×Draw24%

Burnley23%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TottenhamExpected goals in this matchBurnley

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.02

Tottenham

1.67

Burnley

1.02

Tottenham creates 64% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 19 away

1.29

creates per match

0.72

1.33

allows per match

2.05

creates per match

Tottenham

1.29

Burnley

0.72

allows per match

Tottenham

1.33

Burnley

2.05

+0.13scores more than expected

finishing

+0.33scores more than expected

finishing

Tottenham+0.13scores more

Burnley+0.33scores more

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tottenham ↓

Burnley →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Tottenham or draw

77%

Tottenham or Burnley

76%

Draw or Burnley

47%

Winning margin

Tottenham wins by 2+

28%

Burnley wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Tottenham 1+ goals

81%

Tottenham 2+ goals

50%

Tottenham 3+ goals

23%

Burnley 1+ goals

64%

Burnley 2+ goals

27%

Burnley 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Tottenham (draw refunded)

69%

Burnley (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tottenham at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.33 · 31 matches

Burnley away — creates 0.72, concedes 2.05 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tottenham attack 1.29 + Burnley defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.67

Burnley attack 0.72 + Tottenham defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Tottenham scores more

53%

level

24%

Burnley scores more

23%

Tottenham at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Tottenham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

N. Collins

Burnley · D

7.9

Match Events

27'

Connor Roberts

45+4'

Davinson SánchezPenalty awarded

45+8'

Nick Pope

45+8'

H. KanePenalty

49'

Lucas Moura

78'

W. Weghorst← A. Barnes

78'

A. Lennon← M. Lowton

79'

D. Kulusevski← Lucas Moura

86'

Hugo Lloris

90+4'

Dejan Kulusevski

90'

J. Rodon← Emerson

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

TottenhamBurnley

Overview

68%Possession32%

21Total Shots8

8Corners2

12Fouls8

Shots

21Total Shots8

8On Target1

7Off Target6

6Blocked1

12Inside Box7

9Outside Box1

Passing

68%Possession32%

647Total Passes299

568Accurate Passes221

88%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

1Saves6

Discipline

12Fouls8

3Yellow Cards2

1Offsides2