Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Tottenham vs Burnley — Premier League 2026

Tottenham
Tottenham
FT
5 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Burnley
Burnley
M. Sissoko 74'
H. Kane 54', 5'
Son Heung-Min 32'
Lucas Moura 9'
12/7/2019Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 16Tottenham Hotspur Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Tottenham55%
×Draw23%
Burnley21%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tottenham
1.79
Burnley
1.02

Tottenham creates 75% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 21 away

creates per match

Tottenham
1.47
Burnley
0.79

allows per match

Tottenham
1.26
Burnley
2.10

finishing

Tottenham+0.05on par
Burnley+0.40scores more

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tottenham ↓

Burnley →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Tottenham or draw
79%
Tottenham or Burnley
77%
Draw or Burnley
45%

Winning margin

Tottenham wins by 2+
31%
Burnley wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Tottenham 1+ goals
83%
Tottenham 2+ goals
53%
Tottenham 3+ goals
26%
Burnley 1+ goals
64%
Burnley 2+ goals
27%
Burnley 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Tottenham (draw refunded)
72%
Burnley (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tottenham at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.26 · 40 matches

Burnley away — creates 0.79, concedes 2.10 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tottenham attack 1.47 + Burnley defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.79

Burnley attack 0.79 + Tottenham defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Tottenham scores more
55%
level
23%
Burnley scores more
21%

Tottenham at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Tottenham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
H. KaneTottenhamTottenham · F
9.4

Match Events

5'
H. Kane↳ Son Heung-Min
9'
Lucas Moura↳ D. Alli
22'
Matthew Lowton
32'
Son Heung-Min↳ J. Vertonghen
54'
H. Kane↳ D. Alli
65'
M. Vydra← C. Wood
71'
A. Lennon← R. Brady
72'
Eric Dier
74'
M. Sissoko↳ H. Kane
75'
R. Sessegnon← Lucas Moura
80'
O. Skipp← S. Aurier
85'
T. Parrott← D. Alli

Possession

49%Tottenham

Shots

13Tottenham

Pass accuracy

50%Tottenham

Statistics

TottenhamBurnley
Overview
49%Possession51%
13Total Shots7
1Corners1
12Fouls8
Shots
13Total Shots7
7On Target1
3Off Target5
3Blocked1
8Inside Box5
5Outside Box2
Passing
49%Possession51%
476Total Passes479
368Accurate Passes366
77%Pass Accuracy76%
Goalkeeping
1Saves2
Discipline
12Fouls8
1Yellow Cards1
1Offsides2

Premier League: Tottenham 5–0 Burnley

Tottenham beat Burnley 5-0 in Premier League on December 7, 2019.

Goals: H. Kane (5', 54'), Lucas Moura (9'), Son Heung-Min (32'), M. Sissoko (74').

Burnley controlled possession (51%) and registered 7 shots to 13.

The match was played at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in London.