Tottenham 2–1 Burnley: Result & Stats

Tottenham

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Burnley

D. Rose 71'

D. Alli 27'

A. Barnes 21'

12/18/2016

Premier League · Round 17White Hart Lane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Tottenham55%

×Draw23%

Burnley21%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TottenhamExpected goals in this matchBurnley

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

1.02

Tottenham

1.79

Burnley

1.02

Tottenham creates 75% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 21 away

1.47

creates per match

0.79

1.26

allows per match

2.10

creates per match

Tottenham

1.47

Burnley

0.79

allows per match

Tottenham

1.26

Burnley

2.10

+0.05on par

finishing

+0.40scores more than expected

finishing

Tottenham+0.05on par

Burnley+0.40scores more

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tottenham ↓

Burnley →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Tottenham or draw

79%

Tottenham or Burnley

77%

Draw or Burnley

45%

Winning margin

Tottenham wins by 2+

31%

Burnley wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Tottenham 1+ goals

83%

Tottenham 2+ goals

53%

Tottenham 3+ goals

26%

Burnley 1+ goals

64%

Burnley 2+ goals

27%

Burnley 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Tottenham (draw refunded)

72%

Burnley (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tottenham at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.26 · 40 matches

Burnley away — creates 0.79, concedes 2.10 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tottenham attack 1.47 + Burnley defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.79

Burnley attack 0.79 + Tottenham defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Tottenham scores more

55%

level

23%

Burnley scores more

21%

Tottenham at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Tottenham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

J. Vertonghen

Tottenham · D

7.9

Match Events

21'

A. Barnes

27'

D. Alli↳ K. Walker

28'

Ashley Barnes

63'

M. Sissoko← M. Dembélé

70'

Moussa Sissoko

71'

D. Rose↳ M. Sissoko

73'

Heung-Min Son← D. Alli

77'

80'

83'

84'

90'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

TottenhamBurnley

Overview

60%Possession40%

30Total Shots5

11Corners2

10Fouls11

Shots

30Total Shots5

9On Target2

12Off Target1

9Blocked2

13Inside Box4

17Outside Box1

Passing

60%Possession40%

482Total Passes325

401Accurate Passes202

83%Pass Accuracy62%

Goalkeeping

1Saves7

Discipline

10Fouls11

1Yellow Cards2

0Offsides2