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Toten vs Raufoss II — 3. Division - Girone 2 2020

Toten
Toten
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Raufoss II
Raufoss II
4/30/20223. Division - Girone 23. Division - Girone 2 · Girone 2 - 4Østre Toten kunstgressbane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Toten52%
×Draw20%
Raufoss II28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Toten
2.23
Raufoss II
1.59

Toten creates 40% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 26 away

creates per match

Toten
1.31
Raufoss II
0.88

allows per match

Toten
2.31
Raufoss II
3.15

finishing

Toten+0.00on par
Raufoss II+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Toten ↓

Raufoss II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Toten or draw
72%
Toten or Raufoss II
80%
Draw or Raufoss II
48%

Winning margin

Toten wins by 2+
31%
Raufoss II wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Toten 1+ goals
89%
Toten 2+ goals
65%
Toten 3+ goals
38%
Raufoss II 1+ goals
80%
Raufoss II 2+ goals
47%
Raufoss II 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Toten (draw refunded)
65%
Raufoss II (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Toten at home — creates 1.31, concedes 2.31 · 13 matches

Raufoss II away — creates 0.88, concedes 3.15 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Toten attack 1.31 + Raufoss II defence 3.15 → ÷2 → 2.23

Raufoss II attack 0.88 + Toten defence 2.31 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Toten scores more
52%
level
20%
Raufoss II scores more
28%

Toten at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Toten will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Toten vs Raufoss II

Toten beat Raufoss II 2-1 in 3. Division - Girone 2 on April 30, 2022.

The match was played at Østre Toten kunstgressbane in Lena.