Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Raufoss II vs Toten — 3. Division - Girone 2 2020

Raufoss II
Raufoss II
FT
5 – 1
HT: 4 – 0
Toten
Toten
T. Loberg 84'
T. S. Andersen 26'
H. Gashnjani 18', 6'
S. Oftsbo 11'
M. Wainwright Hveem 87'
10/16/20223. Division - Girone 23. Division - Girone 2 · Girone 2 - 25NAMMO stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Raufoss II64%
×Draw16%
Toten20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Raufoss II
3.29
Toten
1.89

Raufoss II creates 74% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 13 away

creates per match

Raufoss II
1.50
Toten
0.69

allows per match

Raufoss II
3.08
Toten
5.08

finishing

Raufoss II+0.00on par
Toten+0.00on par

Total goals

88%Over
  • Over88
  • Under12

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

82%Yes
  • Yes82
  • No18

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Raufoss II ↓

Toten →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–02%
1–14%
1–23%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–25%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 3–1 (7%) · grid covers 77% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
88%12%3.5
75%25%4.5
57%43%

Double chance

Raufoss II or draw
80%
Raufoss II or Toten
84%
Draw or Toten
36%

Winning margin

Raufoss II wins by 2+
45%
Toten wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Raufoss II 1+ goals
96%
Raufoss II 2+ goals
83%
Raufoss II 3+ goals
62%
Toten 1+ goals
85%
Toten 2+ goals
56%
Toten 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Raufoss II (draw refunded)
76%
Toten (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
78%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Raufoss II at home — creates 1.50, concedes 3.08 · 26 matches

Toten away — creates 0.69, concedes 5.08 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Raufoss II attack 1.50 + Toten defence 5.08 → ÷2 → 3.29

Toten attack 0.69 + Raufoss II defence 3.08 → ÷2 → 1.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Raufoss II scores more
64%
level
16%
Toten scores more
20%

Raufoss II at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Raufoss II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'
H. Gashnjani
11'
S. Oftsbo
18'
H. Gashnjani
26'
T. S. Andersen
84'
T. Loberg
87'
M. Wainwright Hveem

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Raufoss II vs Toten

Raufoss II beat Toten 5-1 in 3. Division - Girone 2 on October 16, 2022.

Goals: H. Gashnjani (6', 18'), S. Oftsbo (11'), T. S. Andersen (26'), T. Loberg (84'), M. Wainwright Hveem (87').

The match was played at NAMMO stadion in Raufoss.