Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Raufoss II vs Toten — 3. Division - Girone 1 2020

Raufoss II
Raufoss II
CANC
14:00
Toten
Toten
8/22/20203. Division - Girone 13. Division - Girone 1 · Girone 1 - 3NAMMO stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Raufoss II51%
×Draw20%
Toten29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Raufoss II
2.25
Toten
1.67

Raufoss II creates 35% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

creates per match

Raufoss II
1.83
Toten
1.33

allows per match

Raufoss II
2.00
Toten
2.67

finishing

Raufoss II+0.00on par
Toten+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Raufoss II ↓

Toten →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Raufoss II or draw
71%
Raufoss II or Toten
80%
Draw or Toten
49%

Winning margin

Raufoss II wins by 2+
30%
Toten wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Raufoss II 1+ goals
89%
Raufoss II 2+ goals
65%
Raufoss II 3+ goals
39%
Toten 1+ goals
81%
Toten 2+ goals
50%
Toten 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Raufoss II (draw refunded)
64%
Toten (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Raufoss II at home — creates 1.83, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

Toten away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Raufoss II attack 1.83 + Toten defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.25

Toten attack 1.33 + Raufoss II defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Raufoss II scores more
51%
level
20%
Toten scores more
29%

Raufoss II at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Raufoss II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Raufoss II vs Toten — Match Preview

Raufoss II face Toten on August 22, 2020 in this 3. Division - Girone 1 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Raufoss II host Toten at NAMMO stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.