Torreense 4–3 Sporting CP B: Result & Stats

Torreense

FT

4 – 3

HT: 2 – 1

Sporting CP B

Simão Rocha 52'

Cícero 46'

Frederic Maciel 33'

Mateus 3'

João Goulart 90'

Paulo Agostinho 54'

Chico Lamba 9'

8/28/2021

Liga 3 · Round 3Campo Manuel Marques

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Torreense47%

×Draw27%

Sporting CP B26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TorreenseExpected goals in this matchSporting CP B

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.00

Torreense

1.45

Sporting CP B

1.00

Torreense creates 45% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 58 away

1.64

creates per match

1.14

0.86

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Torreense

1.64

Sporting CP B

1.14

allows per match

Torreense

0.86

Sporting CP B

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Torreense+0.00on par

Sporting CP B+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torreense ↓

Sporting CP B →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Torreense or draw

74%

Torreense or Sporting CP B

73%

Draw or Sporting CP B

53%

Winning margin

Torreense wins by 2+

23%

Sporting CP B wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Torreense 1+ goals

77%

Torreense 2+ goals

42%

Torreense 3+ goals

18%

Sporting CP B 1+ goals

63%

Sporting CP B 2+ goals

26%

Sporting CP B 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Torreense (draw refunded)

65%

Sporting CP B (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torreense at home — creates 1.64, concedes 0.86 · 14 matches

Sporting CP B away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.26 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torreense attack 1.64 + Sporting CP B defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.45

Sporting CP B attack 1.14 + Torreense defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Torreense scores more

47%

level

27%

Sporting CP B scores more

26%

Torreense at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Torreense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'

9'

33'

46'

52'

Joelson Fernandes← Gonçalo Esteves

52'

Hevertton← L. Dias

52'

Simão Rocha

54'

Paulo Agostinho

64'

Aílson Tavares← Alex Freitas

64'

Yuran Lopes← Cícero

64'

Ulisses Oliveira← João Cardoso

76'

Vando Félix← Bernardo Sousa

78'

Rui Silva← Simão Rocha

85'

Edinho← Mateus

88'

Tiago Rodrigues← Edu Pinheiro

90'

João Goulart

Torreense

Sporting

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

Rocha

⚽

▼

Cícero

▼

Cardoso

Morais

⚽

▼

Mateus

▼

Freitas

⚽

Maciel

Manager: Daúto Faquirá

64'▲Aílson Tavares←▼Alex Freitas

64'▲Yuran Lopes←▼Cícero

64'▲Ulisses Oliveira←▼João Cardoso

78'▲Rui Silva←▼Simão Rocha

85'▲Edinho←▼Mateus

Torreense substitutes

TavaresLopesOliveiraSilvaEdinho

Manager: Filipe Çelikkaya

52'▲Joelson Fernandes←▼Gonçalo Esteves

52'▲Hevertton←▼L. Dias

76'▲Vando Félix←▼Bernardo Sousa

88'▲Tiago Rodrigues←▼Edu Pinheiro

Sporting CP B substitutes

FernandesHeverttonFélixRodrigues

Liga 3: Torreense 4–3 Sporting CP B

Torreense beat Sporting CP B 4-3 in Liga 3 on August 28, 2021.

Goals: Mateus (3'), Chico Lamba (9'), Frederic Maciel (33'), Cícero (46'), Simão Rocha (52'), Paulo Agostinho (54'), João Goulart (90').

The match was played at Campo Manuel Marques in Torres Vedras.

Torreense vs Sporting CP B — Liga 3 2021

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Liga 3: Torreense 4–3 Sporting CP B