Sporting CP B 1–2 Torreense: Result & Stats

Sporting CP B

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Torreense

L. Anjos 56'

M. Drammeh 90' (pen)

D. Jean 43'

1/19/2026

Segunda Liga · Round 18CGD Stadium Aurelio Pereira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Sporting CP B37%

×Draw27%

Torreense37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sporting CP BExpected goals in this matchTorreense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

Sporting CP B

1.28

Torreense

1.28

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 29 home / 68 away

1.41

creates per match

1.15

1.41

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Sporting CP B

1.41

Torreense

1.15

allows per match

Sporting CP B

1.41

Torreense

1.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sporting CP B+0.00on par

Torreense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting CP B ↓

Torreense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Sporting CP B or draw

63%

Sporting CP B or Torreense

73%

Draw or Torreense

63%

Winning margin

Sporting CP B wins by 2+

16%

Torreense wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Sporting CP B 1+ goals

72%

Sporting CP B 2+ goals

37%

Sporting CP B 3+ goals

14%

Torreense 1+ goals

72%

Torreense 2+ goals

37%

Torreense 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Sporting CP B (draw refunded)

50%

Torreense (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting CP B at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.41 · 29 matches

Torreense away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.16 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting CP B attack 1.41 + Torreense defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.28

Torreense attack 1.15 + Sporting CP B defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Sporting CP B scores more

37%

level

27%

Torreense scores more

37%

Sporting CP B at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Sporting CP B will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

43'

54'

56'

68'

70'

78'

78'

M. Tanlongo← P. Cardoso

78'

R. Besugo← M. Mendonca

79'

Costinha

79'

I. Seydi← M. Pozo

80'

Pite← Costinha

82'

Rodrigo Dias

84'

Kaua Oliveira← G. Silva

84'

S. Jorge Ferreira← Rayan Lucas

90+1'

L. Taibo Dominguez← S. Justo

90+1'

A. Simoes← Guilherme Liberato

90+1'

Danilo← David Bruno

90'

M. DrammehPenalty

Statistics

SportingTorreense

Discipline

2Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards0