Sporting CP B 1–0 Torreense: Result & Stats

Sporting CP B

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Torreense

Bernardo Sousa 7'

1/8/2022

Liga 3 · Round 14CGD Stadium Aurélio Pereira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Sporting CP B44%

×Draw27%

Torreense29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sporting CP BExpected goals in this matchTorreense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.04

Sporting CP B

1.34

Torreense

1.04

Sporting CP B creates 29% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 14 away

1.47

creates per match

1.14

0.95

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Sporting CP B

1.47

Torreense

1.14

allows per match

Sporting CP B

0.95

Torreense

1.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sporting CP B+0.00on par

Torreense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting CP B ↓

Torreense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Sporting CP B or draw

71%

Sporting CP B or Torreense

73%

Draw or Torreense

56%

Winning margin

Sporting CP B wins by 2+

20%

Torreense wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Sporting CP B 1+ goals

74%

Sporting CP B 2+ goals

39%

Sporting CP B 3+ goals

15%

Torreense 1+ goals

65%

Torreense 2+ goals

28%

Torreense 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Sporting CP B (draw refunded)

60%

Torreense (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting CP B at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.95 · 58 matches

Torreense away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.21 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting CP B attack 1.47 + Torreense defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.34

Torreense attack 1.14 + Sporting CP B defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Sporting CP B scores more

44%

level

27%

Torreense scores more

29%

Sporting CP B at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Sporting CP B will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

Bernardo Sousa

67'

Ulisses Oliveira← Lameira

72'

Mateus Fernandes← Lucas Dias

76'

Edinho← Rui Silva

76'

Minhoca← Mário Mendonça

86'

Duarte Carvalho← Miguel Menino

90+4'

Diogo Cabral← Bernardo Sousa

90'

Iero← David Rosa

Sporting

Torreense

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Filipe Çelikkaya

72'▲Mateus Fernandes←▼Lucas Dias

86'▲Duarte Carvalho←▼Miguel Menino

90+4'▲Diogo Cabral←▼Bernardo Sousa

Sporting CP B substitutes

FernandesCarvalhoCabral

Manager: Nuno Santos

67'▲Ulisses Oliveira←▼Lameira

76'▲Edinho←▼Rui Silva

76'▲Minhoca←▼Mário Mendonça

90'▲Iero←▼David Rosa

Torreense substitutes

OliveiraEdinhoMinhocaIero