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Torpedo Zhodino vs Shakhter Soligorsk — Premier League 2018

Torpedo Zhodino
Torpedo Zhodino
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Shakhter Soligorsk
Shakhter Soligorsk
11/26/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 29Stadyen Tarpeda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 104+ matches

Torpedo Zhodino35%
×Draw28%
Shakhter Soligorsk37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Torpedo Zhodino
1.18
Shakhter Soligorsk
1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 128 home / 104 away

creates per match

Torpedo Zhodino
1.48
Shakhter Soligorsk
1.52

allows per match

Torpedo Zhodino
0.94
Shakhter Soligorsk
0.88

finishing

Torpedo Zhodino+0.00on par
Shakhter Soligorsk+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torpedo Zhodino ↓

Shakhter Soligorsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Torpedo Zhodino or draw
63%
Torpedo Zhodino or Shakhter Soligorsk
72%
Draw or Shakhter Soligorsk
65%

Winning margin

Torpedo Zhodino wins by 2+
15%
Shakhter Soligorsk wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Torpedo Zhodino 1+ goals
69%
Torpedo Zhodino 2+ goals
33%
Torpedo Zhodino 3+ goals
12%
Shakhter Soligorsk 1+ goals
71%
Shakhter Soligorsk 2+ goals
35%
Shakhter Soligorsk 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Torpedo Zhodino (draw refunded)
48%
Shakhter Soligorsk (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torpedo Zhodino at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.94 · 128 matches

Shakhter Soligorsk away — creates 1.52, concedes 0.88 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torpedo Zhodino attack 1.48 + Shakhter Soligorsk defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.18

Shakhter Soligorsk attack 1.52 + Torpedo Zhodino defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Torpedo Zhodino scores more
35%
level
28%
Shakhter Soligorsk scores more
37%

Shakhter Soligorsk at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Shakhter Soligorsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Torpedo Zhodino 1–0 Shakhter Soligorsk

Torpedo Zhodino beat Shakhter Soligorsk 1-0 in Premier League on November 26, 2024.

The match was played at Stadyen Tarpeda in Zhodino.