Shakhter Soligorsk 1–0 Torpedo Zhodino

Shakhter Soligorsk

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Torpedo Zhodino

3/10/2024

Coppa · Quarter-finalsStadyen Shakhtsyor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Shakhter Soligorsk44%

×Draw26%

Torpedo Zhodino30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shakhter SoligorskExpected goals in this matchTorpedo Zhodino

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.19

Shakhter Soligorsk

1.48

Torpedo Zhodino

1.19

Shakhter Soligorsk creates 24% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 24 away

2.17

creates per match

1.88

0.50

allows per match

0.79

creates per match

Shakhter Soligorsk

2.17

Torpedo Zhodino

1.88

allows per match

Shakhter Soligorsk

0.50

Torpedo Zhodino

0.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shakhter Soligorsk+0.00on par

Torpedo Zhodino+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shakhter Soligorsk ↓

Torpedo Zhodino →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Shakhter Soligorsk or draw

70%

Shakhter Soligorsk or Torpedo Zhodino

74%

Draw or Torpedo Zhodino

56%

Winning margin

Shakhter Soligorsk wins by 2+

21%

Torpedo Zhodino wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Shakhter Soligorsk 1+ goals

77%

Shakhter Soligorsk 2+ goals

43%

Shakhter Soligorsk 3+ goals

19%

Torpedo Zhodino 1+ goals

70%

Torpedo Zhodino 2+ goals

33%

Torpedo Zhodino 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Shakhter Soligorsk (draw refunded)

59%

Torpedo Zhodino (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shakhter Soligorsk at home — creates 2.17, concedes 0.50 · 6 matches

Torpedo Zhodino away — creates 1.88, concedes 0.79 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shakhter Soligorsk attack 2.17 + Torpedo Zhodino defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 1.48

Torpedo Zhodino attack 1.88 + Shakhter Soligorsk defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Shakhter Soligorsk scores more

44%

level

26%

Torpedo Zhodino scores more

30%

Shakhter Soligorsk at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Shakhter Soligorsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff