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Shakhter Soligorsk vs Torpedo Zhodino — Premier League 2018

Shakhter Soligorsk
Shakhter Soligorsk
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Torpedo Zhodino
Torpedo Zhodino
10/28/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 26Stadyen Budaŭnik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 103+ matches

Shakhter Soligorsk46%
×Draw27%
Torpedo Zhodino28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shakhter Soligorsk
1.42
Torpedo Zhodino
1.04

Shakhter Soligorsk creates 37% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 124 away

creates per match

Shakhter Soligorsk
1.81
Torpedo Zhodino
1.26

allows per match

Shakhter Soligorsk
0.82
Torpedo Zhodino
1.03

finishing

Shakhter Soligorsk+0.00on par
Torpedo Zhodino+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shakhter Soligorsk ↓

Torpedo Zhodino →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Shakhter Soligorsk or draw
72%
Shakhter Soligorsk or Torpedo Zhodino
73%
Draw or Torpedo Zhodino
54%

Winning margin

Shakhter Soligorsk wins by 2+
22%
Torpedo Zhodino wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Shakhter Soligorsk 1+ goals
76%
Shakhter Soligorsk 2+ goals
41%
Shakhter Soligorsk 3+ goals
17%
Torpedo Zhodino 1+ goals
65%
Torpedo Zhodino 2+ goals
28%
Torpedo Zhodino 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Shakhter Soligorsk (draw refunded)
62%
Torpedo Zhodino (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shakhter Soligorsk at home — creates 1.81, concedes 0.82 · 103 matches

Torpedo Zhodino away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.03 · 124 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shakhter Soligorsk attack 1.81 + Torpedo Zhodino defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.42

Torpedo Zhodino attack 1.26 + Shakhter Soligorsk defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Shakhter Soligorsk scores more
46%
level
27%
Torpedo Zhodino scores more
28%

Shakhter Soligorsk at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Shakhter Soligorsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Shakhter Soligorsk 0–1 Torpedo Zhodino

Torpedo Zhodino beat Shakhter Soligorsk 1-0 in Premier League on October 28, 2023.

The match was played at Stadyen Budaŭnik in Soligorsk.