Torpedo Zhodino 1–1 Belshina: Result & Stats

Torpedo Zhodino

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Belshina

V. Gorbachik 36'

V. Solanovich 90+1' (pen)

8/19/2023

Premier League · Round 18Stadyen Tarpeda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Torpedo Zhodino56%

×Draw23%

Belshina21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Torpedo ZhodinoExpected goals in this matchBelshina

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

1.02

Torpedo Zhodino

1.81

Belshina

1.02

Torpedo Zhodino creates 77% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 51 away

1.49

creates per match

1.08

0.96

allows per match

2.12

creates per match

Torpedo Zhodino

1.49

Belshina

1.08

allows per match

Torpedo Zhodino

0.96

Belshina

2.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Torpedo Zhodino+0.00on par

Belshina+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torpedo Zhodino ↓

Belshina →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Torpedo Zhodino or draw

79%

Torpedo Zhodino or Belshina

77%

Draw or Belshina

44%

Winning margin

Torpedo Zhodino wins by 2+

32%

Belshina wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Torpedo Zhodino 1+ goals

84%

Torpedo Zhodino 2+ goals

54%

Torpedo Zhodino 3+ goals

27%

Belshina 1+ goals

64%

Belshina 2+ goals

27%

Belshina 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Torpedo Zhodino (draw refunded)

72%

Belshina (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torpedo Zhodino at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.96 · 119 matches

Belshina away — creates 1.08, concedes 2.12 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torpedo Zhodino attack 1.49 + Belshina defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.81

Belshina attack 1.08 + Torpedo Zhodino defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Torpedo Zhodino scores more

56%

level

23%

Belshina scores more

21%

Torpedo Zhodino at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Torpedo Zhodino will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

35'

36'

47'

55'

E. Mychelkin← D. Lisakovich

58'

V. Solanovich← I. Yurin

59'

A. Chizh← V. Melko

59'

E. Essogo← V. Gorbachik

60'

V. Pobudey← E. Mensah

65'

K. Leonovich← I. Sen

72'

F. Akyam← M. Kolyadko

76'

N. Sokolovskiy← S. Lomako

89'

Vadim Pobudey

89'

A. Zaleskiy← O. Batyshchev

90+3'

Aleksey Zaleskiy

90+7'

D. Denisenko← I. Kukharchik

90+1'

V. SolanovichPenalty

Torpedo4-2-3-1

Belshina3-4-3

7

▼

Sen

20

▼

Yurin

11

▼

Lomako

3

Zepatta

23

▼

71

18

30

5

▼

95

13

1

96

▼

97

88

17

33

⚽

▼

Gorbachik

6

Premudrov

9

▼

Batyshche

10

▼

Lisakovic

77

▼

Mensah

18

Patsko

Manager: D. Molosh

55'▲E. Mychelkin←▼D. Lisakovich

59'▲A. Chizh←▼V. Melko

59'▲E. Essogo←▼V. Gorbachik

60'▲V. Pobudey←▼E. Mensah

89'▲A. Zaleskiy←▼O. Batyshchev

Torpedo Zhodino substitutes

7Mychelkin2Chizh11Essogo70Pobudey13Zaleskiy15Zhelezny21Shevchenko22Manaev55Ksenofontov91Dudar

Manager: V. Pavlov

58'▲V. Solanovich←▼I. Yurin

65'▲K. Leonovich←▼I. Sen

72'▲F. Akyam←▼M. Kolyadko

76'▲N. Sokolovskiy←▼S. Lomako

90+7'▲D. Denisenko←▼I. Kukharchik

Belshina substitutes

4Solanovich10Leonovich77Akyam19Sokolovskiy22Denisenko2Matlakh9Fofana21Pakhomov24Patsenko69Bukshtan