Belshina 0–0 Torpedo Zhodino: Result & Stats

Belshina

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Torpedo Zhodino

4/8/2023

Premier League · Round 3Stadyen im. Alexander Prokopenko

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Belshina23%

×Draw25%

Torpedo Zhodino52%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BelshinaExpected goals in this matchTorpedo Zhodino

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.97

1.61

Belshina

0.97

Torpedo Zhodino

1.61

Torpedo Zhodino creates 66% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 113 away

0.96

creates per match

1.29

1.94

allows per match

0.98

creates per match

Belshina

0.96

Torpedo Zhodino

1.29

allows per match

Belshina

1.94

Torpedo Zhodino

0.98

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Belshina+0.00on par

Torpedo Zhodino+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Belshina ↓

Torpedo Zhodino →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–112%

0–210%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–210%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Belshina or draw

48%

Belshina or Torpedo Zhodino

75%

Draw or Torpedo Zhodino

77%

Winning margin

Belshina wins by 2+

8%

Torpedo Zhodino wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Belshina 1+ goals

62%

Belshina 2+ goals

25%

Belshina 3+ goals

7%

Torpedo Zhodino 1+ goals

80%

Torpedo Zhodino 2+ goals

48%

Torpedo Zhodino 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Belshina (draw refunded)

30%

Torpedo Zhodino (draw refunded)

70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Belshina at home — creates 0.96, concedes 1.94 · 52 matches

Torpedo Zhodino away — creates 1.29, concedes 0.98 · 113 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Belshina attack 0.96 + Torpedo Zhodino defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.97

Torpedo Zhodino attack 1.29 + Belshina defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Belshina scores more

23%

level

25%

Torpedo Zhodino scores more

52%

Torpedo Zhodino at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Torpedo Zhodino will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff