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Torpedo Moskva vs Ural — First League 2019

Torpedo Moskva
Torpedo Moskva
Preview
16:00
Ural
Ural
3/6/2027First LeagueFirst League · Round 22Arena Khimki
Big match
44%
Torpedo Moskva
model favours
44%27%29%

Torpedo Moskva have won 6 in a row

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
58%
under 2.5 goals
48%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Torpedo Moskva44%
×Draw27%
Ural29%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Torpedo Moskva
1.35
Ural
1.03

Torpedo Moskva creates 31% more chances

Season form · 106 home / 34 away

creates per match

Torpedo Moskva
1.55
Ural
1.21

allows per match

Torpedo Moskva
0.85
Ural
1.15

finishing

Torpedo Moskva+0.00on par
Ural+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torpedo Moskva ↓

Ural →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Torpedo Moskva or draw
71%
Torpedo Moskva or Ural
73%
Draw or Ural
56%

Winning margin

Torpedo Moskva wins by 2+
21%
Ural wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Torpedo Moskva 1+ goals
74%
Torpedo Moskva 2+ goals
39%
Torpedo Moskva 3+ goals
15%
Ural 1+ goals
64%
Ural 2+ goals
28%
Ural 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Torpedo Moskva (draw refunded)
61%
Ural (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torpedo Moskva at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.85 · 106 matches

Ural away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.15 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torpedo Moskva attack 1.55 + Ural defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.35

Ural attack 1.21 + Torpedo Moskva defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Torpedo Moskva scores more
44%
level
27%
Ural scores more
29%

Torpedo Moskva at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Torpedo Moskva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in only 20% of Torpedo Moskva’s matches
  • Ural win just 30% against the top half (vs 67% against the bottom)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Moskva
WWWW
Ural
LDWLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Torpedo Moskva face Ural (First League)

First League returns with Torpedo Moskva hosting Ural. Match starts March 6, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Torpedo Moskva host Ural at Arena Khimki.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.