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Torpedo Moskva vs Shinnik Yaroslavl — First League 2018

Torpedo Moskva
Torpedo Moskva
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Shinnik Yaroslavl
Shinnik Yaroslavl
K. Khosonov 18'
5/11/2025First LeagueFirst League · Round 32Arena Khimki

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 106+ matches

Torpedo Moskva51%
×Draw26%
Shinnik Yaroslavl23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Torpedo Moskva
1.51
Shinnik Yaroslavl
0.92

Torpedo Moskva creates 64% more chances

Season form · 106 home / 122 away

creates per match

Torpedo Moskva
1.55
Shinnik Yaroslavl
0.99

allows per match

Torpedo Moskva
0.85
Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.47

finishing

Torpedo Moskva+0.00on par
Shinnik Yaroslavl+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torpedo Moskva ↓

Shinnik Yaroslavl →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Torpedo Moskva or draw
77%
Torpedo Moskva or Shinnik Yaroslavl
74%
Draw or Shinnik Yaroslavl
49%

Winning margin

Torpedo Moskva wins by 2+
26%
Shinnik Yaroslavl wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Torpedo Moskva 1+ goals
78%
Torpedo Moskva 2+ goals
44%
Torpedo Moskva 3+ goals
19%
Shinnik Yaroslavl 1+ goals
60%
Shinnik Yaroslavl 2+ goals
23%
Shinnik Yaroslavl 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Torpedo Moskva (draw refunded)
69%
Shinnik Yaroslavl (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torpedo Moskva at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.85 · 106 matches

Shinnik Yaroslavl away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.47 · 122 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torpedo Moskva attack 1.55 + Shinnik Yaroslavl defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.51

Shinnik Yaroslavl attack 0.99 + Torpedo Moskva defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Torpedo Moskva scores more
51%
level
26%
Shinnik Yaroslavl scores more
23%

Torpedo Moskva at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Torpedo Moskva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'
Artemiy Kosogorov
18'
K. Khosonov
20'
Artem Golubev
40'
Artemiy Kosogorov
40'
Artemiy Kosogorov
46'
A. Malakhov← A. Golubev
61'
M. Maksimov← A. Yushin
61'
A. Kostin← K. Khosonov
72'
V. Galkin← G. Alykulov
78'
Sergey Borodin
86'
P. Shakuro← A. Malakhov
88'
I. Gorbunov← Y. Guzmán
88'
B. Roganović← I. Manelov
90+1'
Maksim Maksimov

Statistics

TorpedoShinnik
Discipline
2Yellow Cards3
0Red Cards1

First League: Torpedo Moskva 1–0 Shinnik Yaroslavl

Torpedo Moskva beat Shinnik Yaroslavl 1-0 in First League on May 11, 2025.

Goals: K. Khosonov (18').

The match was played at Arena Khimki in Khimki.