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Torpedo Moskva vs Shinnik Yaroslavl — Friendlies Clubs 2020

Torpedo Moskva
Torpedo Moskva
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Shinnik Yaroslavl
Shinnik Yaroslavl
D. Shamkin 45+4' (pen)
6/20/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Sportivnyj gorodok Luzhniki

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Torpedo Moskva52%
×Draw24%
Shinnik Yaroslavl24%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Torpedo Moskva
1.69
Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.06

Torpedo Moskva creates 59% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 6 away

creates per match

Torpedo Moskva
2.38
Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.00

allows per match

Torpedo Moskva
1.13
Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.00

finishing

Torpedo Moskva+0.00on par
Shinnik Yaroslavl+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torpedo Moskva ↓

Shinnik Yaroslavl →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Torpedo Moskva or draw
76%
Torpedo Moskva or Shinnik Yaroslavl
76%
Draw or Shinnik Yaroslavl
48%

Winning margin

Torpedo Moskva wins by 2+
28%
Shinnik Yaroslavl wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Torpedo Moskva 1+ goals
82%
Torpedo Moskva 2+ goals
50%
Torpedo Moskva 3+ goals
24%
Shinnik Yaroslavl 1+ goals
65%
Shinnik Yaroslavl 2+ goals
29%
Shinnik Yaroslavl 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Torpedo Moskva (draw refunded)
69%
Shinnik Yaroslavl (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torpedo Moskva at home — creates 2.38, concedes 1.13 · 16 matches

Shinnik Yaroslavl away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torpedo Moskva attack 2.38 + Shinnik Yaroslavl defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.69

Shinnik Yaroslavl attack 1.00 + Torpedo Moskva defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Torpedo Moskva scores more
52%
level
24%
Shinnik Yaroslavl scores more
24%

Torpedo Moskva at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Torpedo Moskva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45+4'
D. ShamkinPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Torpedo Moskva 1–0 Shinnik Yaroslavl

Torpedo Moskva beat Shinnik Yaroslavl 1-0 in Friendlies Clubs on June 20, 2024.

Goals: D. Shamkin (45+4' pen).

The match was played at Sportivnyj gorodok Luzhniki in Moskva.