Shinnik Yaroslavl 1–1 Torpedo Moskva

Shinnik Yaroslavl

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Torpedo Moskva

I. Porokhov 45'

D. Tsypchenko 90'

5/11/2026

First League · Round 33Stadion Shinnik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 104+ matches

Shinnik Yaroslavl34%

×Draw29%

Torpedo Moskva37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shinnik YaroslavlExpected goals in this matchTorpedo Moskva

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.09

1.15

Shinnik Yaroslavl

1.09

Torpedo Moskva

1.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 122 home / 104 away

1.13

creates per match

1.22

1.07

allows per match

1.05

creates per match

Shinnik Yaroslavl

1.13

Torpedo Moskva

1.22

allows per match

Shinnik Yaroslavl

1.07

Torpedo Moskva

1.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shinnik Yaroslavl+0.00on par

Torpedo Moskva+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shinnik Yaroslavl ↓

Torpedo Moskva →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Shinnik Yaroslavl or draw

63%

Shinnik Yaroslavl or Torpedo Moskva

71%

Draw or Torpedo Moskva

66%

Winning margin

Shinnik Yaroslavl wins by 2+

14%

Torpedo Moskva wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Shinnik Yaroslavl 1+ goals

66%

Shinnik Yaroslavl 2+ goals

30%

Shinnik Yaroslavl 3+ goals

10%

Torpedo Moskva 1+ goals

68%

Torpedo Moskva 2+ goals

32%

Torpedo Moskva 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Shinnik Yaroslavl (draw refunded)

48%

Torpedo Moskva (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shinnik Yaroslavl at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.07 · 122 matches

Torpedo Moskva away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.05 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shinnik Yaroslavl attack 1.13 + Torpedo Moskva defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.09

Torpedo Moskva attack 1.22 + Shinnik Yaroslavl defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Shinnik Yaroslavl scores more

34%

level

29%

Torpedo Moskva scores more

37%

Torpedo Moskva at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Torpedo Moskva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

Artur Galoyan

45'

I. Porokhov

46'

R. Apekov← M. Camara

64'

D. Kalayda← A. Yushin

64'

N. Ishchenko← V. Shitov

69'

Aleksey Kashtanov

72'

A. Gongapshev← I. Porokhov

72'

D. Tsypchenko← A. Kashtanov

81'

Konstantin Savichev

81'

I. Berkovsky← D. Utkin

86'

A. Kosogorov← D. Samoilov

90+4'

Sergey Borodin

90'

D. Tsypchenko

Shinnik4-3-3

Torpedo4-2-3-1

79

▼

Kashtanov

7

▼

Yushin

9

▼

Shitov

33

▼

Camara

47

▼

27

99

4

24

77

86

51

5

53

55

44

50

21

64

88

11

⚽

▼

Porokhov

15

▼

Samoilov

Manager: Artem Buloychik

72'▲A. Gongapshev←▼I. Porokhov

86'▲A. Kosogorov←▼D. Samoilov

Shinnik Yaroslavl substitutes

95Vambolt1Ismagilov62Karpov4Bozov2Kosogorov61Malakhov17Nikitin23Nafikov20Martovoy9Stefanovich77Gongapshev

Manager: Oleg Kononov

46'▲R. Apekov←▼M. Camara

64'▲D. Kalayda←▼A. Yushin

64'▲N. Ishchenko←▼V. Shitov

72'▲D. Tsypchenko←▼A. Kashtanov

81'▲I. Berkovsky←▼D. Utkin

Torpedo Moskva substitutes

25Soldatenko3Ivankov84Churilov5Moskvichev97Curic20Kalayda11Apekov17Berkovsky83Ishchenko10Tsypchenko

First League: Shinnik Yaroslavl 1–1 Torpedo Moskva

Shinnik Yaroslavl and Torpedo Moskva drew 1-1 in First League on May 11, 2026.

Goals: I. Porokhov (45'), D. Tsypchenko (90').

The match was played at Stadion Shinnik in Yaroslavl.

Shinnik Yaroslavl vs Torpedo Moskva — First League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

First League: Shinnik Yaroslavl 1–1 Torpedo Moskva