Torpedo Moskva vs Shinnik Yaroslavl — First League 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 104+ matches
Torpedo Moskva51%
Shinnik Yaroslavl23%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Torpedo Moskva creates 63% more chances
Season form · 104 home / 124 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under56
- Over44
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No53
- Yes47
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Torpedo Moskva ↓
Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Torpedo Moskva at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.86 · 104 matches
Shinnik Yaroslavl away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.49 · 124 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Torpedo Moskva attack 1.56 + Shinnik Yaroslavl defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.52
Shinnik Yaroslavl attack 1.00 + Torpedo Moskva defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.93
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 51%?"
Torpedo Moskva at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 51% does not mean "Torpedo Moskva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Shinnik Yaroslavl substitutes
Tambov
PFC Sochi
TOM Tomsk
Nizhny Novgorod
Chertanovo MoscowShinnik Yaroslavl
Ska-khabarovsk
Avangard Kursk
Khimki
Krasnodar 2
Rotor Volgograd
Mordovia Saransk
Luch-Energiya
Spartak Moscow 2
FC Armavir
Baltika
Fakel Voronezh
Sibir
Zenit 2
TyumenIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Torpedo Moskva host Shinnik Yaroslavl on Saturday, 5 October 2019 at 15:00. The match is part of the First League 2026/2027 season.
Match Recap: Torpedo Moskva vs Shinnik Yaroslavl
Torpedo Moskva beat Shinnik Yaroslavl 2-0 in First League on October 5, 2019.
Goals: N. Pokidyshev (30' o.g.), A. Ryazantsev (74' pen).
The match was played at Stadion Torpedo im. Eduarda Strel'tsova in Moskva.