Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Torpedo Moskva vs Krylya Sovetov — Premier League 2018

Torpedo Moskva
Torpedo Moskva
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Krylya Sovetov
Krylya Sovetov
11/6/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 16Stadion Luzhniki

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Torpedo Moskva30%
×Draw25%
Krylya Sovetov45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Torpedo Moskva
1.20
Krylya Sovetov
1.52

Krylya Sovetov creates 27% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 106 away

creates per match

Torpedo Moskva
0.60
Krylya Sovetov
1.03

allows per match

Torpedo Moskva
2.00
Krylya Sovetov
1.79

finishing

Torpedo Moskva+0.00on par
Krylya Sovetov+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torpedo Moskva ↓

Krylya Sovetov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Torpedo Moskva or draw
55%
Torpedo Moskva or Krylya Sovetov
75%
Draw or Krylya Sovetov
70%

Winning margin

Torpedo Moskva wins by 2+
12%
Krylya Sovetov wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Torpedo Moskva 1+ goals
70%
Torpedo Moskva 2+ goals
34%
Torpedo Moskva 3+ goals
12%
Krylya Sovetov 1+ goals
78%
Krylya Sovetov 2+ goals
45%
Krylya Sovetov 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Torpedo Moskva (draw refunded)
40%
Krylya Sovetov (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torpedo Moskva at home — creates 0.60, concedes 2.00 · 15 matches

Krylya Sovetov away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.79 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torpedo Moskva attack 0.60 + Krylya Sovetov defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.20

Krylya Sovetov attack 1.03 + Torpedo Moskva defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Torpedo Moskva scores more
30%
level
25%
Krylya Sovetov scores more
45%

Krylya Sovetov at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Krylya Sovetov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Torpedo Moskva vs Krylya Sovetov

Krylya Sovetov beat Torpedo Moskva 2-0 in Premier League on November 6, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Luzhniki in Moskva.