Torpedo Moskva 3–1 Krylya Sovetov: Result & Stats

Torpedo Moskva

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Krylya Sovetov

11/1/2020

First League · Round 19Saturn Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Torpedo Moskva36%

×Draw28%

Krylya Sovetov36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Torpedo MoskvaExpected goals in this matchKrylya Sovetov

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.20

Torpedo Moskva

1.21

Krylya Sovetov

1.20

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 106 home / 22 away

1.55

creates per match

1.55

0.85

allows per match

0.86

creates per match

Torpedo Moskva

1.55

Krylya Sovetov

1.55

allows per match

Torpedo Moskva

0.85

Krylya Sovetov

0.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Torpedo Moskva+0.00on par

Krylya Sovetov+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torpedo Moskva ↓

Krylya Sovetov →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Torpedo Moskva or draw

64%

Torpedo Moskva or Krylya Sovetov

72%

Draw or Krylya Sovetov

64%

Winning margin

Torpedo Moskva wins by 2+

16%

Krylya Sovetov wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Torpedo Moskva 1+ goals

70%

Torpedo Moskva 2+ goals

34%

Torpedo Moskva 3+ goals

12%

Krylya Sovetov 1+ goals

70%

Krylya Sovetov 2+ goals

34%

Krylya Sovetov 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Torpedo Moskva (draw refunded)

50%

Krylya Sovetov (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torpedo Moskva at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.85 · 106 matches

Krylya Sovetov away — creates 1.55, concedes 0.86 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torpedo Moskva attack 1.55 + Krylya Sovetov defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.21

Krylya Sovetov attack 1.55 + Torpedo Moskva defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Torpedo Moskva scores more

36%

level

28%

Krylya Sovetov scores more

36%

Torpedo Moskva at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Torpedo Moskva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff