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Krylya Sovetov vs Torpedo Moskva — First League 2018

Krylya Sovetov
Krylya Sovetov
FT
5 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Torpedo Moskva
Torpedo Moskva
4/28/2021First LeagueFirst League · Round 39Samara Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Krylya Sovetov65%
×Draw20%
Torpedo Moskva14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Krylya Sovetov
2.02
Torpedo Moskva
0.81

Krylya Sovetov creates 149% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 104 away

creates per match

Krylya Sovetov
3.00
Torpedo Moskva
1.22

allows per match

Krylya Sovetov
0.41
Torpedo Moskva
1.05

finishing

Krylya Sovetov+0.00on par
Torpedo Moskva+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Krylya Sovetov ↓

Torpedo Moskva →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Krylya Sovetov or draw
86%
Krylya Sovetov or Torpedo Moskva
80%
Draw or Torpedo Moskva
35%

Winning margin

Krylya Sovetov wins by 2+
41%
Torpedo Moskva wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Krylya Sovetov 1+ goals
87%
Krylya Sovetov 2+ goals
60%
Krylya Sovetov 3+ goals
33%
Torpedo Moskva 1+ goals
56%
Torpedo Moskva 2+ goals
19%
Torpedo Moskva 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Krylya Sovetov (draw refunded)
82%
Torpedo Moskva (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Krylya Sovetov at home — creates 3.00, concedes 0.41 · 22 matches

Torpedo Moskva away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.05 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Krylya Sovetov attack 3.00 + Torpedo Moskva defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 2.02

Torpedo Moskva attack 1.22 + Krylya Sovetov defence 0.41 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Krylya Sovetov scores more
65%
level
20%
Torpedo Moskva scores more
14%

Krylya Sovetov at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Krylya Sovetov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Krylya Sovetov 5–1 Torpedo Moskva

Krylya Sovetov beat Torpedo Moskva 5-1 in First League on April 28, 2021.

The match was played at Samara Arena in Samara.