Torpedo Moskva 2–0 Krylya Sovetov: Result & Stats

Torpedo Moskva

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Krylya Sovetov

I. Sergeev 45+2'

M. Shorkin 36'

9/25/2019

Cup · 16th FinalsStadion Torpedo im. Eduarda Strel'tsova

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Torpedo Moskva37%

×Draw25%

Krylya Sovetov38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Torpedo MoskvaExpected goals in this matchKrylya Sovetov

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.42

Torpedo Moskva

1.39

Krylya Sovetov

1.42

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 10 home / 19 away

1.10

creates per match

1.53

1.30

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

Torpedo Moskva

1.10

Krylya Sovetov

1.53

allows per match

Torpedo Moskva

1.30

Krylya Sovetov

1.68

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Torpedo Moskva+0.00on par

Krylya Sovetov+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torpedo Moskva ↓

Krylya Sovetov →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Torpedo Moskva or draw

62%

Torpedo Moskva or Krylya Sovetov

75%

Draw or Krylya Sovetov

63%

Winning margin

Torpedo Moskva wins by 2+

17%

Krylya Sovetov wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Torpedo Moskva 1+ goals

75%

Torpedo Moskva 2+ goals

40%

Torpedo Moskva 3+ goals

16%

Krylya Sovetov 1+ goals

76%

Krylya Sovetov 2+ goals

41%

Krylya Sovetov 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Torpedo Moskva (draw refunded)

49%

Krylya Sovetov (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torpedo Moskva at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.30 · 10 matches

Krylya Sovetov away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.68 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torpedo Moskva attack 1.10 + Krylya Sovetov defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.39

Krylya Sovetov attack 1.53 + Torpedo Moskva defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Torpedo Moskva scores more

37%

level

25%

Krylya Sovetov scores more

38%

Krylya Sovetov at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Krylya Sovetov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'

36'

38'

40'

43'

45'

45+2'

46'

A. Sobolev← D. Radonjić

48'

T. Burlak

62'

A. Zinkovskiy← P. Anton

63'

M. Bagaev← A. Galoyan

68'

A. Samsonov← I. Lebedenko

68'

D. Kabutov← A. Terekhov

88'

D. Smirnov

89'

S. Shustikov← I. Samoshnikov

Torpedo

Krylya

▼

▼

▼

90

16

⚽

47

28

▼

7

20

▼

Galoyan

10

▼

Lebedenko

33

⚽

Sergeev

Manager: N. Savichev

63'▲M. Bagaev←▼A. Galoyan

68'▲A. Samsonov←▼I. Lebedenko

89'▲S. Shustikov←▼I. Samoshnikov

Torpedo Moskva substitutes

Bagaev44Samsonov6Shustikov4Eliseev15OrekhovTsitsilinTatarinovMaksimovTsygan

Manager: M. Božović

46'▲A. Sobolev←▼D. Radonjić

62'▲A. Zinkovskiy←▼P. Anton

68'▲D. Kabutov←▼A. Terekhov

Krylya Sovetov substitutes

SobolevZinkovskiyKabutovGaţcanKombarovKiselevKarpovChernovRyzhikov

Match Recap: Torpedo Moskva vs Krylya Sovetov

Torpedo Moskva beat Krylya Sovetov 2-0 in Cup on September 25, 2019.

Goals: M. Shorkin (36'), I. Sergeev (45+2').

The match was played at Stadion Torpedo im. Eduarda Strel'tsova in Moskva.

Torpedo Moskva vs Krylya Sovetov — Cup 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Torpedo Moskva vs Krylya Sovetov