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Torpedo Moskva vs KAMAZ — First League 2024

Torpedo Moskva
Torpedo Moskva
Preview
15:00
KAMAZ
KAMAZ
4/3/2027First LeagueFirst League · Round 25Arena Khimki
Big match
49%
Torpedo Moskva
model favours
49%28%23%

Torpedo Moskva have won 6 in a row

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
64%
under 2.5 goals
41%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Torpedo Moskva49%
×Draw28%
KAMAZ23%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Torpedo Moskva
1.33
KAMAZ
0.81

Torpedo Moskva creates 64% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 42 away

creates per match

Torpedo Moskva
1.53
KAMAZ
0.74

allows per match

Torpedo Moskva
0.89
KAMAZ
1.12

finishing

Torpedo Moskva+0.00on par
KAMAZ+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torpedo Moskva ↓

KAMAZ →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Torpedo Moskva or draw
77%
Torpedo Moskva or KAMAZ
72%
Draw or KAMAZ
51%

Winning margin

Torpedo Moskva wins by 2+
23%
KAMAZ wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Torpedo Moskva 1+ goals
74%
Torpedo Moskva 2+ goals
38%
Torpedo Moskva 3+ goals
15%
KAMAZ 1+ goals
56%
KAMAZ 2+ goals
19%
KAMAZ 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Torpedo Moskva (draw refunded)
68%
KAMAZ (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torpedo Moskva at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.89 · 36 matches

KAMAZ away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.12 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torpedo Moskva attack 1.53 + KAMAZ defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.33

KAMAZ attack 0.74 + Torpedo Moskva defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Torpedo Moskva scores more
49%
level
28%
KAMAZ scores more
23%

Torpedo Moskva at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Torpedo Moskva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in only 20% of Torpedo Moskva’s matches
  • Both teams scored in 4 of the last 5 meetings

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Moskva
WWWW
KAMAZ
LDLDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Torpedo Moskva face KAMAZ (First League)

First League returns with Torpedo Moskva hosting KAMAZ. Match starts April 3, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Torpedo Moskva host KAMAZ at Arena Khimki.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.