KAMAZ 1–1 Torpedo Moskva: Result & Stats

KAMAZ

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Torpedo Moskva

A. Abramov 54'

V. Galkin 90+4'

8/12/2024

First League · Round 5Stadion Neftekhimik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 87+ matches

KAMAZ38%

×Draw29%

Torpedo Moskva33%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KAMAZExpected goals in this matchTorpedo Moskva

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

1.09

KAMAZ

1.18

Torpedo Moskva

1.09

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 87 home / 104 away

1.31

creates per match

1.22

0.97

allows per match

1.05

creates per match

KAMAZ

1.31

Torpedo Moskva

1.22

allows per match

KAMAZ

0.97

Torpedo Moskva

1.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

KAMAZ+0.00on par

Torpedo Moskva+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KAMAZ ↓

Torpedo Moskva →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

KAMAZ or draw

67%

KAMAZ or Torpedo Moskva

71%

Draw or Torpedo Moskva

62%

Winning margin

KAMAZ wins by 2+

16%

Torpedo Moskva wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

KAMAZ 1+ goals

69%

KAMAZ 2+ goals

33%

KAMAZ 3+ goals

12%

Torpedo Moskva 1+ goals

66%

Torpedo Moskva 2+ goals

30%

Torpedo Moskva 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

KAMAZ (draw refunded)

53%

Torpedo Moskva (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KAMAZ at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.97 · 87 matches

Torpedo Moskva away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.05 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KAMAZ attack 1.31 + Torpedo Moskva defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.18

Torpedo Moskva attack 1.22 + KAMAZ defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

KAMAZ scores more

38%

level

29%

Torpedo Moskva scores more

33%

KAMAZ at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "KAMAZ will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

54'

A. Abramov

62'

A. Koryan← D. Shamkin

62'

I. Gorbunov← W. Aponzá

62'

A. Chupaev← R. Chervyakov

70'

D. Starodub← A. Abramov

70'

R. Zashchepkin← D. Karaev

70'

R. Apekov← S. Abdullaev

79'

Arshak Koryan

82'

M. Maksimov← M. Ćurić

82'

V. Galkin← I. Manelov

84'

B. Fartuna← P. Gorelov

90+1'

Y. Kirillov← R. Akbashev

90+4'

V. Galkin

KAMAZ4-1-4-1

Torpedo4-1-4-1

29

▼

Aponzá

11

▼

Shamkin

97

▼

Ćurić

89

▼

Chervyako

69

▼

52

90

4

3

99

12

31

5

23

3

4

⚽

▼

Abramov

6

Kozlov

13

Pochivali

22

▼

Gorelov

14

▼

Abdullaev

70

▼

Akbashev

9

▼

Karaev

Manager: I. Akhmetzyanov

70'▲D. Starodub←▼A. Abramov

70'▲R. Zashchepkin←▼D. Karaev

70'▲R. Apekov←▼S. Abdullaev

84'▲B. Fartuna←▼P. Gorelov

90+1'▲Y. Kirillov←▼R. Akbashev

KAMAZ substitutes

8Starodub10Zashchepkin11Apekov33Fartuna42Kirillov1Gerasimov7Ayukin15Ratnikov53Deryugin

Manager: O. Kononov

62'▲A. Koryan←▼D. Shamkin

62'▲I. Gorbunov←▼W. Aponzá

62'▲A. Chupaev←▼R. Chervyakov

82'▲M. Maksimov←▼M. Ćurić

82'▲V. Galkin←▼I. Manelov

Torpedo Moskva substitutes

7Koryan17Gorbunov38Chupaev9Maksimov22Galkin8Konovalov19Baytukov51Botnar74Volkov77Shitov87Kostin15Danilkin

First League: KAMAZ 1–1 Torpedo Moskva

KAMAZ and Torpedo Moskva drew 1-1 in First League on August 12, 2024.

Goals: A. Abramov (54'), V. Galkin (90+4').

The match was played at Stadion Neftekhimik in Nizhnekamsk.

KAMAZ vs Torpedo Moskva — First League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

First League: KAMAZ 1–1 Torpedo Moskva