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Torpedo Moskva vs KAMAZ — First League 2018

Torpedo Moskva
Torpedo Moskva
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
KAMAZ
KAMAZ
A. Yushin 10'
A. Sukhanov 56'
5/24/2025First LeagueFirst League · Round 34Arena Khimki

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 88+ matches

Torpedo Moskva51%
×Draw28%
KAMAZ21%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Torpedo Moskva
1.37
KAMAZ
0.76

Torpedo Moskva creates 80% more chances

Season form · 106 home / 88 away

creates per match

Torpedo Moskva
1.55
KAMAZ
0.66

allows per match

Torpedo Moskva
0.85
KAMAZ
1.19

finishing

Torpedo Moskva+0.00on par
KAMAZ+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torpedo Moskva ↓

KAMAZ →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Torpedo Moskva or draw
79%
Torpedo Moskva or KAMAZ
72%
Draw or KAMAZ
49%

Winning margin

Torpedo Moskva wins by 2+
25%
KAMAZ wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Torpedo Moskva 1+ goals
75%
Torpedo Moskva 2+ goals
40%
Torpedo Moskva 3+ goals
16%
KAMAZ 1+ goals
53%
KAMAZ 2+ goals
18%
KAMAZ 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Torpedo Moskva (draw refunded)
71%
KAMAZ (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torpedo Moskva at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.85 · 106 matches

KAMAZ away — creates 0.66, concedes 1.19 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torpedo Moskva attack 1.55 + KAMAZ defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.37

KAMAZ attack 0.66 + Torpedo Moskva defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Torpedo Moskva scores more
51%
level
28%
KAMAZ scores more
21%

Torpedo Moskva at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Torpedo Moskva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'
A. Yushin
22'
Ilja Zhigulev
35'
Aleksandr Ivankov
46'
S. Abdullaev← A. Deryugin
50'
Ilja Zhigulev
50'
Ilja Zhigulev
56'
A. Sukhanov
65'
D. Starodub← M. Sultonov
65'
R. Manuylov← A. Sukhanov
68'
G. Alykulov← I. Manelov
68'
A. Chupaev← A. Yushin
68'
R. Netfullin← M. Maksimov
71'
V. Pochivalin← R. Ayukin
88'
M. Lauk← R. Apekov

Statistics

TorpedoKAMAZ
Discipline
1Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards1

First League: Torpedo Moskva 1–1 KAMAZ

Torpedo Moskva and KAMAZ drew 1-1 in First League on May 24, 2025.

Goals: A. Yushin (10'), A. Sukhanov (56').

The match was played at Arena Khimki in Khimki.