KAMAZ 1–2 Torpedo Moskva: Result & Stats | Cup

KAMAZ

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Torpedo Moskva

S. Abdullaev 59'

V. Shitov 51'

Y. Koledin 35'

9/25/2024

Cup · Regions Path - 4th RoundStadion KAMAZ

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

KAMAZ44%

×Draw28%

Torpedo Moskva28%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KAMAZExpected goals in this matchTorpedo Moskva

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.00

KAMAZ

1.31

Torpedo Moskva

1.00

KAMAZ creates 31% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 8 away

1.25

creates per match

1.38

0.63

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

KAMAZ

1.25

Torpedo Moskva

1.38

allows per match

KAMAZ

0.63

Torpedo Moskva

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

KAMAZ+0.00on par

Torpedo Moskva+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KAMAZ ↓

Torpedo Moskva →

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

KAMAZ or draw

72%

KAMAZ or Torpedo Moskva

72%

Draw or Torpedo Moskva

56%

Winning margin

KAMAZ wins by 2+

20%

Torpedo Moskva wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

KAMAZ 1+ goals

73%

KAMAZ 2+ goals

38%

KAMAZ 3+ goals

14%

Torpedo Moskva 1+ goals

63%

Torpedo Moskva 2+ goals

26%

Torpedo Moskva 3+ goals

Draw no bet

KAMAZ (draw refunded)

61%

Torpedo Moskva (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

KAMAZ at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.63 · 8 matches

Torpedo Moskva away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

KAMAZ attack 1.25 + Torpedo Moskva defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.31

Torpedo Moskva attack 1.38 + KAMAZ defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 44%?"

KAMAZ scores more

44%

level

28%

Torpedo Moskva scores more

28%

KAMAZ at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "KAMAZ will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

35'

Y. Koledin

51'

V. Shitov

57'

M. Lauk← A. Deryugin

57'

A. Abramov← R. Zashchepkin

57'

I. Kozlov← Y. Kirillov

57'

P. Gorelov← A. Sukhanov

59'

S. Abdullaev

62'

I. Gorbunov← A. Sokolov

62'

A. Koryan← M. Maksimov

70'

V. Galkin← R. Chervyakov

70'

M. Camara← V. Shitov

77'

D. Starodub← S. Abdullaev

90+7'

A. Kostin← Y. Koledin

KAMAZ

Torpedo

⚽

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Manager: I. Akhmetzyanov

57'▲M. Lauk←▼A. Deryugin

57'▲A. Abramov←▼R. Zashchepkin

57'▲I. Kozlov←▼Y. Kirillov

57'▲P. Gorelov←▼A. Sukhanov

77'▲D. Starodub←▼S. Abdullaev

KAMAZ substitutes

LaukAbramovKozlovGorelovStarodub

Manager: O. Kononov

62'▲I. Gorbunov←▼A. Sokolov

62'▲A. Koryan←▼M. Maksimov

70'▲V. Galkin←▼R. Chervyakov

70'▲M. Camara←▼V. Shitov

90+7'▲A. Kostin←▼Y. Koledin

Torpedo Moskva substitutes

GorbunovKoryanGalkinCamaraKostin