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Torpedo Moskva vs FC Sochi — First League 2018

Torpedo Moskva
Torpedo Moskva
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
FC Sochi
FC Sochi
M. Maksimov 88'
I. Gorbunov 83'
P. Meleshin 90+1'
M. Kramarič 45+1'
9/29/2024First LeagueFirst League · Round 12Arena Khimki

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Torpedo Moskva40%
×Draw27%
FC Sochi33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Torpedo Moskva
1.31
FC Sochi
1.15

Torpedo Moskva creates 14% more chances

Season form · 106 home / 38 away

creates per match

Torpedo Moskva
1.55
FC Sochi
1.45

allows per match

Torpedo Moskva
0.85
FC Sochi
1.08

finishing

Torpedo Moskva+0.00on par
FC Sochi+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torpedo Moskva ↓

FC Sochi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Torpedo Moskva or draw
67%
Torpedo Moskva or FC Sochi
73%
Draw or FC Sochi
60%

Winning margin

Torpedo Moskva wins by 2+
18%
FC Sochi wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Torpedo Moskva 1+ goals
73%
Torpedo Moskva 2+ goals
38%
Torpedo Moskva 3+ goals
14%
FC Sochi 1+ goals
68%
FC Sochi 2+ goals
32%
FC Sochi 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Torpedo Moskva (draw refunded)
55%
FC Sochi (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torpedo Moskva at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.85 · 106 matches

FC Sochi away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.08 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torpedo Moskva attack 1.55 + FC Sochi defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.31

FC Sochi attack 1.45 + Torpedo Moskva defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Torpedo Moskva scores more
40%
level
27%
FC Sochi scores more
33%

Torpedo Moskva at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Torpedo Moskva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

36'
Sergey Borodin
45+1'
M. Kramarič
46'
I. Gorbunov← M. Camara
59'
M. Maksimov← A. Chupaev
59'
R. Chervyakov← A. Koryan
64'
R. Magal← K. Zaika
64'
V. Lazarev← A. Makarov
66'
V. Galkin← I. Manelov
68'
Kirill Suslov
75'
A. Shushenachev← V. Pisarskiy
75'
P. Meleshin← M. Kramarič
78'
Ruslan Chervyakov
81'
A. Orekhov← M. Ćurić
83'
I. Gorbunov
84'
V. Litvinov← P. Maslov
88'
M. Maksimov
90+6'
Bojan Roganović
90+4'
Egor Danilkin
90+1'
P. Meleshin

Statistics

TorpedoFC
Discipline
4Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards0

First League: Torpedo Moskva 2–2 FC Sochi

Torpedo Moskva and FC Sochi drew 2-2 in First League on September 29, 2024.

Goals: M. Kramarič (45+1'), I. Gorbunov (83'), M. Maksimov (88'), P. Meleshin (90+1').

The match was played at Arena Khimki in Khimki.