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FC Sochi vs Torpedo Moskva — First League 2018

FC Sochi
FC Sochi
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Torpedo Moskva
Torpedo Moskva
Y. Guzmán 79' (pen)
5/17/2025First LeagueFirst League · Round 33Olimpiyskiy Stadion Fisht

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

FC Sochi46%
×Draw26%
Torpedo Moskva27%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Sochi
1.45
Torpedo Moskva
1.04

FC Sochi creates 39% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 104 away

creates per match

FC Sochi
1.84
Torpedo Moskva
1.22

allows per match

FC Sochi
0.86
Torpedo Moskva
1.05

finishing

FC Sochi+0.00on par
Torpedo Moskva+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Sochi ↓

Torpedo Moskva →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

FC Sochi or draw
73%
FC Sochi or Torpedo Moskva
74%
Draw or Torpedo Moskva
54%

Winning margin

FC Sochi wins by 2+
23%
Torpedo Moskva wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

FC Sochi 1+ goals
77%
FC Sochi 2+ goals
42%
FC Sochi 3+ goals
18%
Torpedo Moskva 1+ goals
65%
Torpedo Moskva 2+ goals
28%
Torpedo Moskva 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

FC Sochi (draw refunded)
63%
Torpedo Moskva (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Sochi at home — creates 1.84, concedes 0.86 · 37 matches

Torpedo Moskva away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.05 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Sochi attack 1.84 + Torpedo Moskva defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.45

Torpedo Moskva attack 1.22 + FC Sochi defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

FC Sochi scores more
46%
level
26%
Torpedo Moskva scores more
27%

FC Sochi at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "FC Sochi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

27'
Ruslan Magal
31'
Mario Ćurić
46'
A. Kostin← M. Ćurić
58'
I. Manelov← G. Alykulov
64'
D. Martovoy← R. Magal
70'
Irakliy Manelov
73'
M. Maksimov← A. Yushin
74'
Khetag Khosonov
79'
Y. GuzmánPenalty
81'
P. Maslov← K. Zaika
81'
K. Nikitin← R. Pasevich
81'
E. Danilkin← R. Baytukov
81'
I. Gorbunov← Y. Guzmán
84'
Igor Gorbunov
84'
Sergey Borodin
90+3'
Mikhail Volkov

Statistics

FCTorpedo
Discipline
1Yellow Cards6
0Red Cards0

First League: FC Sochi 0–1 Torpedo Moskva

Torpedo Moskva beat FC Sochi 1-0 in First League on May 17, 2025.

Goals: Y. Guzmán (79' pen).

The match was played at Olimpiyskiy Stadion Fisht in Sochi.