PFC Sochi 3–1 Torpedo Moskva: Result & Stats

PFC Sochi

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Torpedo Moskva

K. Zaika 74'

K. Kravtsov 45'

Joãozinho 7'

M. Caimacov 79'

4/30/2023

Premier League · Round 25Olimpiyskiy Stadion Fisht

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

PFC Sochi59%

×Draw22%

Torpedo Moskva19%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PFC SochiExpected goals in this matchTorpedo Moskva

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.91

0.98

PFC Sochi

1.91

Torpedo Moskva

0.98

PFC Sochi creates 95% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 15 away

1.69

creates per match

0.73

1.24

allows per match

2.13

creates per match

PFC Sochi

1.69

Torpedo Moskva

0.73

allows per match

PFC Sochi

1.24

Torpedo Moskva

2.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

PFC Sochi+0.00on par

Torpedo Moskva+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PFC Sochi ↓

Torpedo Moskva →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

PFC Sochi or draw

81%

PFC Sochi or Torpedo Moskva

78%

Draw or Torpedo Moskva

41%

Winning margin

PFC Sochi wins by 2+

35%

Torpedo Moskva wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

PFC Sochi 1+ goals

85%

PFC Sochi 2+ goals

57%

PFC Sochi 3+ goals

30%

Torpedo Moskva 1+ goals

62%

Torpedo Moskva 2+ goals

26%

Torpedo Moskva 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

PFC Sochi (draw refunded)

76%

Torpedo Moskva (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PFC Sochi at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.24 · 91 matches

Torpedo Moskva away — creates 0.73, concedes 2.13 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PFC Sochi attack 1.69 + Torpedo Moskva defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.91

Torpedo Moskva attack 0.73 + PFC Sochi defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

PFC Sochi scores more

59%

level

22%

Torpedo Moskva scores more

19%

PFC Sochi at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "PFC Sochi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

Joãozinho

PFC Sochi · F

8.5

Match Events

7'

Joãozinho↳ A. Yusupov

45'

K. Kravtsov↳ Joãozinho

46'

G. Melkadze← L. Đorđević

46'

I. Kukharchuk← D. Karaev

61'

T. Shipunov← Joãozinho

63'

M. Turishchev← H. Erkinov

63'

M. Caimacov← A. Ryazantsev

67'

I. Tsallagov← K. Kravtsov

67'

K. Zaika← A. Makarchuk

70'

I. Lebedenko← I. Stefanovich

71'

Jajá← Y. Reyna

74'

K. Zaika↳ A. Yusupov

79'

I. Miladinović← S. Terekhov

79'

M. Caimacov↳ I. Lebedenko

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PFCTorpedo

Overview

52%Possession48%

12Total Shots8

7Corners1

8Fouls10

Shots

12Total Shots8

5On Target1

6Off Target4

1Blocked3

6Inside Box3

6Outside Box5

Passing

52%Possession48%

480Total Passes432

370Accurate Passes334

77%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

0Saves2

Discipline

8Fouls10

2Offsides1