Torpedo Moskva 2–0 Dinamo Bryansk: Result & Stats

Torpedo Moskva

FT

2 – 0

Dinamo Bryansk

7/1/2021

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3TBC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Torpedo Moskva53%

×Draw25%

Dinamo Bryansk22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.4%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Torpedo MoskvaExpected goals in this matchDinamo Bryansk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

0.94

Torpedo Moskva

1.63

Dinamo Bryansk

0.94

Torpedo Moskva creates 73% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 8 away

2.38

creates per match

0.75

1.13

allows per match

0.88

creates per match

Torpedo Moskva

2.38

Dinamo Bryansk

0.75

allows per match

Torpedo Moskva

1.13

Dinamo Bryansk

0.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Torpedo Moskva+0.00on par

Dinamo Bryansk+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torpedo Moskva ↓

Dinamo Bryansk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Torpedo Moskva or draw

78%

Torpedo Moskva or Dinamo Bryansk

75%

Draw or Dinamo Bryansk

47%

Winning margin

Torpedo Moskva wins by 2+

29%

Dinamo Bryansk wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Torpedo Moskva 1+ goals

80%

Torpedo Moskva 2+ goals

48%

Torpedo Moskva 3+ goals

22%

Dinamo Bryansk 1+ goals

61%

Dinamo Bryansk 2+ goals

24%

Dinamo Bryansk 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Torpedo Moskva (draw refunded)

71%

Dinamo Bryansk (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torpedo Moskva at home — creates 2.38, concedes 1.13 · 16 matches

Dinamo Bryansk away — creates 0.75, concedes 0.88 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torpedo Moskva attack 2.38 + Dinamo Bryansk defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.63

Dinamo Bryansk attack 0.75 + Torpedo Moskva defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Torpedo Moskva scores more

53%

level

25%

Dinamo Bryansk scores more

22%

Torpedo Moskva at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Torpedo Moskva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff