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Torpedo Moskva vs Dinamo Bryansk — First League 2026

Torpedo Moskva
Torpedo Moskva
FT
3 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Dinamo Bryansk
Dinamo Bryansk
10/13/2020First LeagueFirst League · Round 15Saturn Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Torpedo Moskva61%
×Draw24%
Dinamo Bryansk15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.4%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Torpedo Moskva
1.64
Dinamo Bryansk
0.67

Torpedo Moskva creates 145% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 21 away

creates per match

Torpedo Moskva
1.56
Dinamo Bryansk
0.48

allows per match

Torpedo Moskva
0.86
Dinamo Bryansk
1.71

finishing

Torpedo Moskva+0.00on par
Dinamo Bryansk+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torpedo Moskva ↓

Dinamo Bryansk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Torpedo Moskva or draw
85%
Torpedo Moskva or Dinamo Bryansk
76%
Draw or Dinamo Bryansk
39%

Winning margin

Torpedo Moskva wins by 2+
34%
Dinamo Bryansk wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Torpedo Moskva 1+ goals
81%
Torpedo Moskva 2+ goals
49%
Torpedo Moskva 3+ goals
23%
Dinamo Bryansk 1+ goals
49%
Dinamo Bryansk 2+ goals
15%
Dinamo Bryansk 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Torpedo Moskva (draw refunded)
80%
Dinamo Bryansk (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torpedo Moskva at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.86 · 105 matches

Dinamo Bryansk away — creates 0.48, concedes 1.71 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torpedo Moskva attack 1.56 + Dinamo Bryansk defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.64

Dinamo Bryansk attack 0.48 + Torpedo Moskva defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Torpedo Moskva scores more
61%
level
24%
Dinamo Bryansk scores more
15%

Torpedo Moskva at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Torpedo Moskva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Torpedo Moskva vs Dinamo Bryansk

Torpedo Moskva beat Dinamo Bryansk 3-0 in First League on October 13, 2020.

The match was played at Saturn Stadion in Ramenskoje.