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Dinamo Bryansk vs Torpedo Moskva — First League 2026

Dinamo Bryansk
Dinamo Bryansk
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Torpedo Moskva
Torpedo Moskva
4/7/2021First LeagueFirst League · Round 35Stadion Dinamo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Dinamo Bryansk26%
×Draw29%
Torpedo Moskva45%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Bryansk
0.89
Torpedo Moskva
1.25

Torpedo Moskva creates 40% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 103 away

creates per match

Dinamo Bryansk
0.71
Torpedo Moskva
1.21

allows per match

Dinamo Bryansk
1.29
Torpedo Moskva
1.06

finishing

Dinamo Bryansk+0.00on par
Torpedo Moskva+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Bryansk ↓

Torpedo Moskva →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–115%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Dinamo Bryansk or draw
55%
Dinamo Bryansk or Torpedo Moskva
71%
Draw or Torpedo Moskva
74%

Winning margin

Dinamo Bryansk wins by 2+
9%
Torpedo Moskva wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Dinamo Bryansk 1+ goals
59%
Dinamo Bryansk 2+ goals
22%
Dinamo Bryansk 3+ goals
6%
Torpedo Moskva 1+ goals
71%
Torpedo Moskva 2+ goals
36%
Torpedo Moskva 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Bryansk (draw refunded)
37%
Torpedo Moskva (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Bryansk at home — creates 0.71, concedes 1.29 · 21 matches

Torpedo Moskva away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.06 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Bryansk attack 0.71 + Torpedo Moskva defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.89

Torpedo Moskva attack 1.21 + Dinamo Bryansk defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Dinamo Bryansk scores more
26%
level
29%
Torpedo Moskva scores more
45%

Torpedo Moskva at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Torpedo Moskva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dinamo Bryansk vs Torpedo Moskva

Torpedo Moskva beat Dinamo Bryansk 1-0 in First League on April 7, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Dinamo in Bryansk.