Torpedo Moskva 3–0 Chertanovo Moscow

Torpedo Moskva

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Chertanovo Moscow

3/24/2021

First League · Round 32Saturn Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Torpedo Moskva49%

×Draw26%

Chertanovo Moscow25%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Torpedo MoskvaExpected goals in this matchChertanovo Moscow

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.03

Torpedo Moskva

1.54

Chertanovo Moscow

1.03

Torpedo Moskva creates 50% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 53 away

1.54

creates per match

1.21

0.85

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Torpedo Moskva

1.54

Chertanovo Moscow

1.21

allows per match

Torpedo Moskva

0.85

Chertanovo Moscow

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Torpedo Moskva+0.00on par

Chertanovo Moscow+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torpedo Moskva ↓

Chertanovo Moscow →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Torpedo Moskva or draw

75%

Torpedo Moskva or Chertanovo Moscow

74%

Draw or Chertanovo Moscow

51%

Winning margin

Torpedo Moskva wins by 2+

25%

Chertanovo Moscow wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Torpedo Moskva 1+ goals

79%

Torpedo Moskva 2+ goals

45%

Torpedo Moskva 3+ goals

20%

Chertanovo Moscow 1+ goals

64%

Chertanovo Moscow 2+ goals

28%

Chertanovo Moscow 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Torpedo Moskva (draw refunded)

66%

Chertanovo Moscow (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torpedo Moskva at home — creates 1.54, concedes 0.85 · 105 matches

Chertanovo Moscow away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.55 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torpedo Moskva attack 1.54 + Chertanovo Moscow defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.54

Chertanovo Moscow attack 1.21 + Torpedo Moskva defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Torpedo Moskva scores more

49%

level

26%

Chertanovo Moscow scores more

25%

Torpedo Moskva at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Torpedo Moskva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff