Chertanovo Moscow 0–0 Torpedo Moskva

Chertanovo Moscow

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Torpedo Moskva

9/27/2020

First League · Round 12Stadion Salyut

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Chertanovo Moscow35%

×Draw27%

Torpedo Moskva38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.4%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chertanovo MoscowExpected goals in this matchTorpedo Moskva

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.27

Chertanovo Moscow

1.21

Torpedo Moskva

1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 52 home / 102 away

1.37

creates per match

1.20

1.33

allows per match

1.05

creates per match

Chertanovo Moscow

1.37

Torpedo Moskva

1.20

allows per match

Chertanovo Moscow

1.33

Torpedo Moskva

1.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chertanovo Moscow+0.00on par

Torpedo Moskva+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chertanovo Moscow ↓

Torpedo Moskva →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Chertanovo Moscow or draw

62%

Chertanovo Moscow or Torpedo Moskva

73%

Draw or Torpedo Moskva

65%

Winning margin

Chertanovo Moscow wins by 2+

15%

Torpedo Moskva wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Chertanovo Moscow 1+ goals

70%

Chertanovo Moscow 2+ goals

34%

Chertanovo Moscow 3+ goals

12%

Torpedo Moskva 1+ goals

72%

Torpedo Moskva 2+ goals

36%

Torpedo Moskva 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Chertanovo Moscow (draw refunded)

48%

Torpedo Moskva (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chertanovo Moscow at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.33 · 52 matches

Torpedo Moskva away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.05 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chertanovo Moscow attack 1.37 + Torpedo Moskva defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.21

Torpedo Moskva attack 1.20 + Chertanovo Moscow defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Chertanovo Moscow scores more

35%

level

27%

Torpedo Moskva scores more

38%

Torpedo Moskva at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Torpedo Moskva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

Maksim Shorkin

45'

Andrey Evdokimov

45'

A. Lyakh← I. Lebedenko

60'

D. Tyumentsev← D. Velikorodny

60'

S. Shustikov← A. Evdokimov

62'

Garrik Levin

66'

Ruslan Magal

68'

Y. Zavezen← I. Molteninov

72'

I. Kamyshev← N. Pershin

75'

K. Kertanov← I. Berkovskiy

77'

Vladislav Adaev

81'

E. Kondakov← Y. Gudkov

81'

A. Gordyushenko← D. Proshlyakov

85'

D. Molchanov← E. Rudkovskiy

Chertanovo4-2-3-1

Torpedo3-4-2-1

61

▼

Proshlyak

10

▼

Lebedenko

8

▼

9

52

7

99

▼

28

16

44

47

81

30

66

▼

Gudkov

4

Redkovich

13

Bartasevi

21

▼

Velikorod

10

▼

Rudkovski

70

Levin

46

▼

Pershin

68

Gerchikov

28

▼

Moltenino

Manager: A. Dmitriev

60'▲D. Tyumentsev←▼D. Velikorodny

68'▲Y. Zavezen←▼I. Molteninov

72'▲I. Kamyshev←▼N. Pershin

81'▲E. Kondakov←▼Y. Gudkov

85'▲D. Molchanov←▼E. Rudkovskiy

Chertanovo Moscow substitutes

7Tyumentsev31Zavezen5Kamyshev3Kondakov11Molchanov14Saveljev16Yavorskiy55Radionov77Melekhov93Molodnyakov

Manager: S. Ignashevich

45'▲A. Lyakh←▼I. Lebedenko

60'▲S. Shustikov←▼A. Evdokimov

75'▲K. Kertanov←▼I. Berkovskiy

81'▲A. Gordyushenko←▼D. Proshlyakov

Torpedo Moskva substitutes

24Lyakh6Shustikov11Kertanov72Gordyushenko4Eliseev15Orekhov17Dvoretskov29Porutchikov49Proshkin51Botnar77Sundukov