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Torpedo Moskva vs Chertanovo Moscow — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Torpedo Moskva
Torpedo Moskva
FT
3 – 2
Chertanovo Moscow
Chertanovo Moscow
6/30/2020Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Stadion Torpedo im. Eduarda Strel'tsova

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Torpedo Moskva72%
×Draw15%
Chertanovo Moscow13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.4%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Torpedo Moskva
2.89
Chertanovo Moscow
1.17

Torpedo Moskva creates 147% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 5 away

creates per match

Torpedo Moskva
2.38
Chertanovo Moscow
1.20

allows per match

Torpedo Moskva
1.13
Chertanovo Moscow
3.40

finishing

Torpedo Moskva+0.00on par
Chertanovo Moscow+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torpedo Moskva ↓

Chertanovo Moscow →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–16%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–24%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
57%43%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Torpedo Moskva or draw
87%
Torpedo Moskva or Chertanovo Moscow
85%
Draw or Chertanovo Moscow
28%

Winning margin

Torpedo Moskva wins by 2+
52%
Chertanovo Moscow wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Torpedo Moskva 1+ goals
94%
Torpedo Moskva 2+ goals
78%
Torpedo Moskva 3+ goals
54%
Chertanovo Moscow 1+ goals
69%
Chertanovo Moscow 2+ goals
33%
Chertanovo Moscow 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Torpedo Moskva (draw refunded)
85%
Chertanovo Moscow (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torpedo Moskva at home — creates 2.38, concedes 1.13 · 16 matches

Chertanovo Moscow away — creates 1.20, concedes 3.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torpedo Moskva attack 2.38 + Chertanovo Moscow defence 3.40 → ÷2 → 2.89

Chertanovo Moscow attack 1.20 + Torpedo Moskva defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Torpedo Moskva scores more
72%
level
15%
Chertanovo Moscow scores more
13%

Torpedo Moskva at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Torpedo Moskva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Torpedo Moskva vs Chertanovo Moscow

Torpedo Moskva beat Chertanovo Moscow 3-2 in Friendlies Clubs on June 30, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Torpedo im. Eduarda Strel'tsova in Moskva.