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Torpedo Moskva vs Alaniya Vladikavkaz — First League 2018

Torpedo Moskva
Torpedo Moskva
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
5/12/2024First LeagueFirst League · Round 32Stadion Luzhniki

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Torpedo Moskva46%
×Draw26%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Torpedo Moskva
1.44
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
1.04

Torpedo Moskva creates 38% more chances

Season form · 106 home / 70 away

creates per match

Torpedo Moskva
1.55
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
1.24

allows per match

Torpedo Moskva
0.85
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
1.33

finishing

Torpedo Moskva+0.00on par
Alaniya Vladikavkaz+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torpedo Moskva ↓

Alaniya Vladikavkaz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Torpedo Moskva or draw
73%
Torpedo Moskva or Alaniya Vladikavkaz
74%
Draw or Alaniya Vladikavkaz
54%

Winning margin

Torpedo Moskva wins by 2+
23%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Torpedo Moskva 1+ goals
76%
Torpedo Moskva 2+ goals
42%
Torpedo Moskva 3+ goals
18%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz 1+ goals
65%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz 2+ goals
28%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Torpedo Moskva (draw refunded)
63%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torpedo Moskva at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.85 · 106 matches

Alaniya Vladikavkaz away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.33 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torpedo Moskva attack 1.55 + Alaniya Vladikavkaz defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.44

Alaniya Vladikavkaz attack 1.24 + Torpedo Moskva defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Torpedo Moskva scores more
46%
level
26%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz scores more
27%

Torpedo Moskva at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Torpedo Moskva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

27'
Soslan Kachmazov
46'
B. Khadartsev← B. Gurtsiev
46'
D. Shavlokhov← S. Kachmazov
53'
Irakliy Manelov
58'
R. Tugarev← R. Cherviakov
58'
G. Gongadze← I. Lebedenko
58'
M. Ćurić← A. Orekhov
60'
D. Karaev← I. Mashukov
73'
T. Gagloev← R. Daurov
76'
A. Kostin← D. Shamkin
82'
A. Khabalov← A. Butaev
83'
Georgi Gongadze
84'
David Shavlokhov

Statistics

TorpedoAlaniya
Discipline
2Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards0

First League: Torpedo Moskva 0–0 Alaniya Vladikavkaz

Torpedo Moskva and Alaniya Vladikavkaz drew 0-0 in First League on May 12, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Luzhniki in Moskva.