Alaniya Vladikavkaz 2–0 Torpedo Moskva

Alaniya Vladikavkaz

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Torpedo Moskva

I. Mashukov 51'

N. Giorgobiani 32'

8/14/2023

First League · Round 5Akhmat Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Alaniya Vladikavkaz39%

×Draw27%

Torpedo Moskva35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Alaniya VladikavkazExpected goals in this matchTorpedo Moskva

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.23

Alaniya Vladikavkaz

1.31

Torpedo Moskva

1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 70 home / 104 away

1.57

creates per match

1.22

1.24

allows per match

1.05

creates per match

Alaniya Vladikavkaz

1.57

Torpedo Moskva

1.22

allows per match

Alaniya Vladikavkaz

1.24

Torpedo Moskva

1.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alaniya Vladikavkaz+0.00on par

Torpedo Moskva+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alaniya Vladikavkaz ↓

Torpedo Moskva →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Alaniya Vladikavkaz or draw

65%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz or Torpedo Moskva

73%

Draw or Torpedo Moskva

61%

Winning margin

Alaniya Vladikavkaz wins by 2+

17%

Torpedo Moskva wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Alaniya Vladikavkaz 1+ goals

73%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz 2+ goals

38%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz 3+ goals

14%

Torpedo Moskva 1+ goals

71%

Torpedo Moskva 2+ goals

35%

Torpedo Moskva 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Alaniya Vladikavkaz (draw refunded)

53%

Torpedo Moskva (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alaniya Vladikavkaz at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.24 · 70 matches

Torpedo Moskva away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.05 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alaniya Vladikavkaz attack 1.57 + Torpedo Moskva defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.31

Torpedo Moskva attack 1.22 + Alaniya Vladikavkaz defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Alaniya Vladikavkaz scores more

39%

level

27%

Torpedo Moskva scores more

35%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Alaniya Vladikavkaz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'

Ruslan Cherviakov

32'

N. Giorgobiani

46'

Z. Tarba← S. Melnikov

46'

I. Stefanovich← R. Chervyakov

51'

56'

59'

59'

59'

R. Yuzepchuk← E. Shlyakov

64'

Nikita Kalugin

67'

D. Karaev← A. Chochiev

72'

D. Shamkin← G. Gongadze

72'

I. Gorbunov← A. Samsonov

78'

D. Kobesov← I. Mashukov

78'

V. Tsarukyan← B. Gurtsiev

84'

Igor Gorbunov

86'

A. Butaev← A. Khabalov

90+3'

Valeri Tsarukyan

90+3'

Daniil Shamkin

Statistics

AlaniyaTorpedo

Overview

4Corners2

Discipline

2Yellow Cards5

Match Recap: Alaniya Vladikavkaz vs Torpedo Moskva

Alaniya Vladikavkaz beat Torpedo Moskva 2-0 in First League on August 14, 2023.

Goals: N. Giorgobiani (32'), I. Mashukov (51').

The match was played at Akhmat Arena in Groznyi.

Alaniya Vladikavkaz vs Torpedo Moskva — First League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Statistics

Match Recap: Alaniya Vladikavkaz vs Torpedo Moskva