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Torpedo Moskva vs Alaniya Vladikavkaz — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Torpedo Moskva
Torpedo Moskva
CANC
14:30
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
1/23/2023Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3TBC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Torpedo Moskva56%
×Draw20%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Torpedo Moskva
2.19
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
1.35

Torpedo Moskva creates 62% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 7 away

creates per match

Torpedo Moskva
2.38
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
1.57

allows per match

Torpedo Moskva
1.13
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
2.00

finishing

Torpedo Moskva+0.00on par
Alaniya Vladikavkaz+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torpedo Moskva ↓

Alaniya Vladikavkaz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Torpedo Moskva or draw
77%
Torpedo Moskva or Alaniya Vladikavkaz
80%
Draw or Alaniya Vladikavkaz
44%

Winning margin

Torpedo Moskva wins by 2+
34%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Torpedo Moskva 1+ goals
89%
Torpedo Moskva 2+ goals
64%
Torpedo Moskva 3+ goals
37%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz 1+ goals
74%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz 2+ goals
39%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Torpedo Moskva (draw refunded)
71%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torpedo Moskva at home — creates 2.38, concedes 1.13 · 16 matches

Alaniya Vladikavkaz away — creates 1.57, concedes 2.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torpedo Moskva attack 2.38 + Alaniya Vladikavkaz defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.19

Alaniya Vladikavkaz attack 1.57 + Torpedo Moskva defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Torpedo Moskva scores more
56%
level
20%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz scores more
23%

Torpedo Moskva at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Torpedo Moskva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Torpedo Moskva host Alaniya Vladikavkaz

January 23, 2023: Torpedo Moskva take on Alaniya Vladikavkaz in Friendlies Clubs. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Torpedo Moskva host Alaniya Vladikavkaz at TBC.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.