Toronto FC vs New England Revolution — Major League Soccer 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on xG from last 13+ matches
Toronto FC48%
New England Revolution28%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Toronto FC creates 38% more chances
Season form · 25 home / 13 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over55
- Under45
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes57
- No43
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Toronto FC ↓
Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Toronto FC at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.18 · 25 matches
New England Revolution away — creates 1.24, concedes 2.30 · 13 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Toronto FC attack 1.04 + New England Revolution defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 1.67
New England Revolution attack 1.24 + Toronto FC defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.21
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 48%?"
Toronto FC at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 48% does not mean "Toronto FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Vancouver Whitecaps
San Jose Earthquakes
Real Salt Lake
FC Dallas
Los Angeles FC
Seattle Sounders
Houston Dynamo
Minnesota United FC
Los Angeles Galaxy
St. Louis City
Portland Timbers
San Diego
Colorado Rapids
Austin
Sporting Kansas City
Nashville SC
Inter Miami
Chicago FireNew England Revolution
New York Red Bulls
Charlotte
FC Cincinnati
New York City FC
DC United
Columbus Crew
CF MontrealToronto FC
Orlando City SC
Atlanta United FC
Philadelphia UnionIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Toronto FC host New England Revolution on Saturday, 3 May 2025 at 20:30. The match is part of the Major League Soccer 2026/2027 season.
Match Recap: Toronto FC vs New England Revolution
New England Revolution beat Toronto FC 2-0 in Major League Soccer on May 3, 2025.
The match was played at BMO Field in Toronto.