Toronto FC 1–0 New England Revolution

Toronto FC

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

New England Revolution

P. Owusu 66'

4/20/2024

Major League Soccer · Round 12BMO Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Toronto FC48%

×Draw24%

New England Revolution28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Toronto FCExpected goals in this matchNew England Revolution

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.21

Toronto FC

1.67

New England Revolution

1.21

Toronto FC creates 38% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 13 away

1.04

creates per match

1.24

1.18

allows per match

2.30

creates per match

Toronto FC

1.04

New England Revolution

1.24

allows per match

Toronto FC

1.18

New England Revolution

2.30

+0.24scores more than expected

finishing

-0.16scores less than expected

finishing

Toronto FC+0.24scores more

New England Revolution-0.16scores less

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Toronto FC ↓

New England Revolution →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Toronto FC or draw

72%

Toronto FC or New England Revolution

76%

Draw or New England Revolution

52%

Winning margin

Toronto FC wins by 2+

25%

New England Revolution wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Toronto FC 1+ goals

81%

Toronto FC 2+ goals

50%

Toronto FC 3+ goals

23%

New England Revolution 1+ goals

70%

New England Revolution 2+ goals

34%

New England Revolution 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Toronto FC (draw refunded)

63%

New England Revolution (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Toronto FC at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.18 · 25 matches

New England Revolution away — creates 1.24, concedes 2.30 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Toronto FC attack 1.04 + New England Revolution defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 1.67

New England Revolution attack 1.24 + Toronto FC defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Toronto FC scores more

48%

level

24%

New England Revolution scores more

28%

Toronto FC at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Toronto FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

Carles Gil

New England Revolution · M

8.0

Match Events

8'

29'

42'

42'

44'

M. Kaye← N. Buck

62'

J. Marshall-Rutty← K. Franklin

62'

A. Mabika← R. Petretta

65'

Matthew Longstaff

66'

P. Owusu↳ J. Marshall-Rutty

72'

K. Thompson← M. Longstaff

72'

B. Wood← G. Vrioni

72'

T. Chancalay← Nacho Gil

85'

D. Kerr← P. Owusu

85'

E. Boateng← R. Spaulding

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

TorontoNew

Overview

39%Possession61%

15Total Shots17

1.50Expected Goals (xG)1.58

0Corners8

11Fouls15

Shots

15Total Shots17

8On Target5

2Off Target5

5Blocked7

7Inside Box10

8Outside Box7

Passing

39%Possession61%

347Total Passes532

268Accurate Passes443

77%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

5Saves7

Discipline

11Fouls15

3Yellow Cards2

1Offsides1