New England Revolution 0–1 Toronto FC

New England Revolution

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Toronto FC

L. Insigne 27'

3/3/2024

Major League Soccer · Round 4Gillette Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 19+ matches

New England Revolution40%

×Draw28%

Toronto FC32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

New England RevolutionExpected goals in this matchToronto FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.08

New England Revolution

1.25

Toronto FC

1.08

New England Revolution creates 16% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 19 away

1.17

creates per match

1.03

1.14

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

New England Revolution

1.17

Toronto FC

1.03

allows per match

New England Revolution

1.14

Toronto FC

1.34

+0.40scores more than expected

finishing

+0.08on par

finishing

New England Revolution+0.40scores more

Toronto FC+0.08on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

New England Revolution ↓

Toronto FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

New England Revolution or draw

68%

New England Revolution or Toronto FC

72%

Draw or Toronto FC

60%

Winning margin

New England Revolution wins by 2+

18%

Toronto FC wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

New England Revolution 1+ goals

71%

New England Revolution 2+ goals

36%

New England Revolution 3+ goals

13%

Toronto FC 1+ goals

66%

Toronto FC 2+ goals

29%

Toronto FC 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

New England Revolution (draw refunded)

56%

Toronto FC (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

New England Revolution at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.14 · 21 matches

Toronto FC away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.34 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

New England Revolution attack 1.17 + Toronto FC defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.25

Toronto FC attack 1.03 + New England Revolution defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

New England Revolution scores more

40%

level

28%

Toronto FC scores more

32%

New England Revolution at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "New England Revolution will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

S. Johnson

Toronto FC · G

8.3

Match Events

22'

Esmir BajraktarevicPenalty cancelled

27'

L. Insigne

46'

K. Franklin← L. Insigne

61'

Nacho Gil← E. Boateng

61'

M. Kaye← N. Buck

66'

A. Akinola← P. Owusu

73'

Federico Bernardeschi

73'

N. Lima← A. Farrell

78'

K. Thompson← R. Petretta

82'

Nickseon Gomis

87'

Sean Johnson

88'

J. Panayotou← D. Jones

90+3'

Ayo Akinola

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NewToronto

Overview

64%Possession36%

23Total Shots8

1.80Expected Goals (xG)0.67

11Corners0

11Fouls16

Shots

23Total Shots8

6On Target2

10Off Target5

7Blocked1

12Inside Box4

11Outside Box4

Passing

64%Possession36%

658Total Passes379

589Accurate Passes304

90%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

1Saves6

Discipline

11Fouls16

0Yellow Cards4

3Offsides5