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Torino vs AS Roma — Serie A 2026

Torino
Torino
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
AS Roma
AS Roma
P. Dybala 72'
D. Malen 26'
1/18/2026Serie ASerie A · Round 21Stadio Olimpico di Torino

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 35+ matches

Torino33%
×Draw26%
AS Roma41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Torino
1.20
AS Roma
1.37

AS Roma creates 14% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 35 away

creates per match

Torino
1.18
AS Roma
1.37

allows per match

Torino
1.37
AS Roma
1.22

finishing

Torino-0.13scores less
AS Roma-0.17scores less

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torino ↓

AS Roma →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Torino or draw
59%
Torino or AS Roma
74%
Draw or AS Roma
67%

Winning margin

Torino wins by 2+
14%
AS Roma wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Torino 1+ goals
70%
Torino 2+ goals
34%
Torino 3+ goals
12%
AS Roma 1+ goals
75%
AS Roma 2+ goals
40%
AS Roma 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Torino (draw refunded)
45%
AS Roma (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torino at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.37 · 41 matches

AS Roma away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.22 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torino attack 1.18 + AS Roma defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.20

AS Roma attack 1.37 + Torino defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Torino scores more
33%
level
26%
AS Roma scores more
41%

AS Roma at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "AS Roma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'
Ardian Ismajli
22'
D. Ghilardi← M. Hermoso
25'
Donyell MalenGoal cancelled
26'
D. Malen↳ P. Dybala
31'
M. Pedersen← Z. Aboukhlal
46'
C. Casadei← G. Gineitis
52'
M. Soule← L. Pellegrini
55'
Gianluca Mancini
72'
P. Dybala↳ D. Rensch
76'
N. Pisilli← D. Malen
77'
F. Anjorin← E. Ilkhan
77'
K. Tsimikas← D. Rensch
77'
R. Vaz← P. Dybala
78'
A. Njie← C. Ngonge
90+1'
Nikola Vlašić

Possession

37%Torino

Shots

8Torino

Pass accuracy

45%Torino

Statistics

TorinoAS
Overview
37%Possession63%
8Total Shots14
0.44Expected Goals (xG)1.86
2Corners1
13Fouls9
Shots
8Total Shots14
4On Target5
4Off Target5
0Blocked4
4Inside Box10
4Outside Box4
Passing
37%Possession63%
307Total Passes532
207Accurate Passes433
67%Pass Accuracy81%
Goalkeeping
3Saves4
0.25Goals Prevented0.25
Discipline
13Fouls9
2Yellow Cards1
1Offsides3

Match Recap: Torino vs AS Roma

AS Roma beat Torino 2-0 in Serie A on January 18, 2026.

Goals: D. Malen (26'), P. Dybala (72').

AS Roma controlled possession (63%) and registered 14 shots to 8.

The match was played at Stadio Olimpico di Torino in Turin.